Sometimes what we see is not reality. Many Las Vegas casinos and offshore books live in a fantasy world and its up to the smart handicappers to see teams for what they really are.
Case in point, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were the darlings of baseball at 24-10 back on May 10 and had dominated in all facets of the game. They outscored their opponents 59-19 during a 9-1 stretch and were leading the National League with a winning percentage of 71%.
The media can have a huge affect on the betting lines of certain games by continually pumping up teams that are the talk of the town. With all the hype over the Brewers, many folks forgot that they had just come off a 10-game homestand, which saw the likes of the Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals visit Milwaukee. Hmm, could that have been the reason the team was allowing less than two runs per game?
As soon as reality hit the Brewers, they stumbled, and the smart gamblers were right on top of the action to cash in. Milwaukee has won only four of its next 16 games and if one had bet $100 against the Brew Crew in every contest since they defeated Washington on May 9, they'd be up $1,032. Not bad for 18-day stretch!
Another misconception that still rears its ugly head is the thought that the Yankees are a good baseball team. It is incomprehensible that on May 29, this club is still getting the respect it has so richly undeserved for quite some time. The Bronx Bombers have dropped 12 of their last 17 games, and yet, were favored in all but two of those contests. Not only is betting on the Yankees one of best ways to throw money away, wagering against them is a surefire way to increase the bankroll. If someone had bet the other way in those 17 match- ups, theyd be up $1,165.
Once again, the key word perception comes into play. It is widely believed that the Yankees will come out of this slump, but when thatll happen is anyones guess. In the meantime, my advice is to bet against them in every single game and thank the stars above that the bookmakers and the public have yet to see the Bombers for what they really are - a team of old veterans with a bullpen that renders on the absurd.
A perfect example of this misperception came last Sunday afternoon against the Angels. Los Angeles has always had success against the Yankees and, in fact, won 17 of the last 25 regular-season meetings, including the first two of the series.
The starters were John Lackey and Mike Mussina. Lackey, 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA, was favored on the road in his last start against a Tigers team, which had won nine of its last 10 at home. Mike Maroth, who was Detroits starter that night, had not lost a game all season and the Tigers were 7-0 in his first seven outings. With that being said, the Angels were still the choice of the bettors.
How in the world then was New York favored over Lackey and the Angels? The Yanks were only .500 at home, while Mussina has been putrid, to say the least. His ERA at Yankee Stadium was over 8.00 and he had allowed 12 runs on 18 hits in his last 12 innings prior to Sundays contest.
It all comes down to one thing and one thing only. The Yankees are still the Yankees and they will get respect until they fall 20 or 30 games out of first place.
LOSING STREAKS
Another misconception that handicappers can take advantage of is when top- notch pitchers are trying to end a teams losing streak. Its been well documented in this space over the past year and a half to never wager on a team knee-deep in a bad stretch. On the contrary, the best thing to do is bet against them and it worked to perfection once again this past Sunday afternoon.
Roy Oswalt was on the hill for the Astros, a team that had lost seven games in a row. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, had victories in three straight games. Not only was Oswalt favored, he was the -145 choice, the highest line the Astros had been on the road all season long! In addition, it wasnt like he was pitching against Micah Owings or Edgar Gonzalez. It was Livan Hernandez, who was coming off two impressive outings, allowing just two runs over his last 15 innings.
The result was a D-Backs victory, an easy 8-4 one at that. Oswalt couldnt save the Stros as he gave up 10 hits and six runs (five earned) in six innings of work. Hernandez went the distance in getting the win, throwing only 114 pitches as opposed to 101 for Oswalt.
MATT CAIN - STRUGGLING UNDER THE LIGHTS
Betting against pitchers, as well as teams, is another way to fatten the wallet.
The Giants Matt Cain is a perfect example. Cain has the stuff to be a dominant hurler in the big leagues for a long time, yet this is still just his second full season in the majors. Bookmakers seem to think hes a seasoned veteran, making him favored in eight of his 10 starts.
The perception of Cain is a pitcher who should win almost every time he hits the mound and the betting lines have reflected that. However, his only two victories have come in day games, which leaves San Francisco 0-8 in the eight night games hes started.
This is not to say he wont turn it around, since the Giants do not score any runs when he pitches (four runs or less in eight of his 10 starts), but its very interesting to see he is leading all NL pitchers currently in the majors at -778 units.
Perception affects the lines for certain teams and pitchers, and one way to beat the book is to realize the difference between fantasy and reality. If done properly, expect a windfall of cash, good enough to pay for a wonderful summer vacation in the Bahamas.
Jack Pappano
ATSExperts.com
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Managers on the Hot Seat
I hand out a yearly predictions sheet prior to every baseball season and we have a little fun with it here at the Sports Network, as we try and figure out who will win the divisions, the MVP and Cy Young awards and things like that.
Last season one of the categories I added was that of first manager to be fired for each league. The powers that be here, though, couldn't add another row to the list without making it look silly, so we decided to scrap it altogether.
In hindsight it was probably a good idea, since there were no major league managers fired in-season during 2006. While we may have had zero changes last season, I think we could have as many as three or four in the coming months.
I would have bet my life before the season that Philadelphia's Charlie Manuel would be gone by now. In fact, I was so sure of it that I was going to choose either Davey Johnson or Jimy Williams as my choice for NL Manager of the Year, since I thought the Phils would start slow, fire Manuel, then get hot and claim the wild card.
Well, they did get off to a horrendous start, but somehow Manuel has weathered the storm and the Phils are playing pretty good baseball right now. Barring a complete collapse now, I cannot see Manuel getting fired. Pat Gillick has only pulled the plug on one of his managers in the middle of a season just one time in all his years as a general manager.
Of course Yankees' manager Joe Torre is the obvious choice to be the first skipper let go, but I don't think he is going anywhere either, especially since Roger Clemens is coming back next week. I wouldn't be surprised if Clemens got some assurances from George Steinbrenner that Torre's job is safe just to get him to come to New York.
Torre, though, is not the only manager in the AL East that is on the hot seat, as Baltimore's Sam Perlozzo and Toronto's John Gibbons both could be looking for work soon.
Despite the Orioles' improved play of late, that team is a mess and Perlozzo has completely lost control. If you don't believe me, just listen to some of the Orioles players, as a number of veterans have come out in recent weeks questioning some of their managers' moves.
Third baseman Melvin Mora was the latest to voice concern. Apparently Mora was peeved that he wasn't told he was not going to be in the starting lineup last Friday against the Oakland Athletics.
"I'm not upset that I'm not in there. I'm upset that they don't communicate with me," Mora said before batting practice. "I could've worked out or come here and worked early. I'm not the kind of guy that wants to work early and play the game, because I don't want to be tired. (Perlozzo's) the boss and he can do anything he wants with the lineup. I don't mind that. He can give me a day off. But we're veteran players here, and we need to know what's happening the next day."
Mora, who nearly came to blows following an on-field confrontation with teammate and longtime friend Jay Payton a few weeks ago, felt Perlozzo did not show him the respect he deserved.
"Mike Hargrove did it. Even Lee Mazzilli did it," Mora added. "I wasn't playing in the big leagues for a long time with the Mets, but Bobby Valentine would tell me, 'You've got a day off tomorrow.' Or, 'You're going to face Tom Glavine tomorrow.' This game is about communication. This game is like how you are with your wife. If you get good communication with your relationship, your relationship's going to be strong. That's the bottom line.
"That's why I see so many players playing hard for their manager -- because their manager treats them well. That's why you see a player like Curt Schilling bleeding on the mound -- because he wants to do everything for Terry Francona."
There have also been reports that the 67-year-old Johnson or reigning NL Manager of the Year Joe Girardi could step in if Perlozzo is in fact fired. One thing Perlozzo has going for him, though, is that only one manager has been let go in-season under owner Peter Angelos' watch. That was Perlozzo's predecessor, Lee Mazzilli.
Gibbons, meanwhile, is probably safer than I think. His team has been ravaged by injuries, most notably to closer B.J. Ryan and staff ace Roy Halladay. But big things were expected from the Blue Jays this season and they have severely underachieved.
Plus let's not forget Gibbons' track record from last year. Not only did he have a pretty public feud with infielder Shea Hillenbrand, but he also got into a physical altercation with starter Ted Lilly.
Halladay will be back this week, but if things continue to go south north of the border, Gibbons will be gone.
Over in the National League, Cincinnati's Jerry Narron has to be checking the Help Wanted ads in the classifieds.
After a promising 2006 campaign, the Reds were picked by some to win the under-whelming Central this year, but they have been the league's worst team with a 19-33 record. And unfortunately for Narron, things don't seem to be getting better anytime soon.
Adam Dunn is a mess. He continues to pile up strikeouts in droves. Some Reds fans I know think the team is going to be able to deal him. I have news for them, nobody wants him. There is a reason Dunn is still on the team now, and that's because nobody wanted him in the offseason. The only way the Reds are going to be able to deal him is if they get 35 cents on the dollar.
The bullpen that general manager Wayne Krivsky worked so hard to improve last season and over the winter has been atrocious. Not only do the Reds have an NL-worst nine saves, but the 4.78 bullpen earned run average is second-worst in the league. Eddie Guardado, though, should be back soon. And if that does not get you excited in Cincinnati, then nothing will.
If I was a betting man - which I am not anymore - I would say Perlozzo has the best shot of going, followed by Narron and Gibbons. Of course, all that could change if the Yankees are swept in Boston this coming weekend. Because Clemens or no Clemens, Steinbrenner will not stand for that and Torre and his four rings will be out of there faster than a New York minute.
Either way, though, I have a feeling that a change could be in the air somewhere soon.
Roger Pitzer
ATSExperts.com
Last season one of the categories I added was that of first manager to be fired for each league. The powers that be here, though, couldn't add another row to the list without making it look silly, so we decided to scrap it altogether.
In hindsight it was probably a good idea, since there were no major league managers fired in-season during 2006. While we may have had zero changes last season, I think we could have as many as three or four in the coming months.
I would have bet my life before the season that Philadelphia's Charlie Manuel would be gone by now. In fact, I was so sure of it that I was going to choose either Davey Johnson or Jimy Williams as my choice for NL Manager of the Year, since I thought the Phils would start slow, fire Manuel, then get hot and claim the wild card.
Well, they did get off to a horrendous start, but somehow Manuel has weathered the storm and the Phils are playing pretty good baseball right now. Barring a complete collapse now, I cannot see Manuel getting fired. Pat Gillick has only pulled the plug on one of his managers in the middle of a season just one time in all his years as a general manager.
Of course Yankees' manager Joe Torre is the obvious choice to be the first skipper let go, but I don't think he is going anywhere either, especially since Roger Clemens is coming back next week. I wouldn't be surprised if Clemens got some assurances from George Steinbrenner that Torre's job is safe just to get him to come to New York.
Torre, though, is not the only manager in the AL East that is on the hot seat, as Baltimore's Sam Perlozzo and Toronto's John Gibbons both could be looking for work soon.
Despite the Orioles' improved play of late, that team is a mess and Perlozzo has completely lost control. If you don't believe me, just listen to some of the Orioles players, as a number of veterans have come out in recent weeks questioning some of their managers' moves.
Third baseman Melvin Mora was the latest to voice concern. Apparently Mora was peeved that he wasn't told he was not going to be in the starting lineup last Friday against the Oakland Athletics.
"I'm not upset that I'm not in there. I'm upset that they don't communicate with me," Mora said before batting practice. "I could've worked out or come here and worked early. I'm not the kind of guy that wants to work early and play the game, because I don't want to be tired. (Perlozzo's) the boss and he can do anything he wants with the lineup. I don't mind that. He can give me a day off. But we're veteran players here, and we need to know what's happening the next day."
Mora, who nearly came to blows following an on-field confrontation with teammate and longtime friend Jay Payton a few weeks ago, felt Perlozzo did not show him the respect he deserved.
"Mike Hargrove did it. Even Lee Mazzilli did it," Mora added. "I wasn't playing in the big leagues for a long time with the Mets, but Bobby Valentine would tell me, 'You've got a day off tomorrow.' Or, 'You're going to face Tom Glavine tomorrow.' This game is about communication. This game is like how you are with your wife. If you get good communication with your relationship, your relationship's going to be strong. That's the bottom line.
"That's why I see so many players playing hard for their manager -- because their manager treats them well. That's why you see a player like Curt Schilling bleeding on the mound -- because he wants to do everything for Terry Francona."
There have also been reports that the 67-year-old Johnson or reigning NL Manager of the Year Joe Girardi could step in if Perlozzo is in fact fired. One thing Perlozzo has going for him, though, is that only one manager has been let go in-season under owner Peter Angelos' watch. That was Perlozzo's predecessor, Lee Mazzilli.
Gibbons, meanwhile, is probably safer than I think. His team has been ravaged by injuries, most notably to closer B.J. Ryan and staff ace Roy Halladay. But big things were expected from the Blue Jays this season and they have severely underachieved.
Plus let's not forget Gibbons' track record from last year. Not only did he have a pretty public feud with infielder Shea Hillenbrand, but he also got into a physical altercation with starter Ted Lilly.
Halladay will be back this week, but if things continue to go south north of the border, Gibbons will be gone.
Over in the National League, Cincinnati's Jerry Narron has to be checking the Help Wanted ads in the classifieds.
After a promising 2006 campaign, the Reds were picked by some to win the under-whelming Central this year, but they have been the league's worst team with a 19-33 record. And unfortunately for Narron, things don't seem to be getting better anytime soon.
Adam Dunn is a mess. He continues to pile up strikeouts in droves. Some Reds fans I know think the team is going to be able to deal him. I have news for them, nobody wants him. There is a reason Dunn is still on the team now, and that's because nobody wanted him in the offseason. The only way the Reds are going to be able to deal him is if they get 35 cents on the dollar.
The bullpen that general manager Wayne Krivsky worked so hard to improve last season and over the winter has been atrocious. Not only do the Reds have an NL-worst nine saves, but the 4.78 bullpen earned run average is second-worst in the league. Eddie Guardado, though, should be back soon. And if that does not get you excited in Cincinnati, then nothing will.
If I was a betting man - which I am not anymore - I would say Perlozzo has the best shot of going, followed by Narron and Gibbons. Of course, all that could change if the Yankees are swept in Boston this coming weekend. Because Clemens or no Clemens, Steinbrenner will not stand for that and Torre and his four rings will be out of there faster than a New York minute.
Either way, though, I have a feeling that a change could be in the air somewhere soon.
Roger Pitzer
ATSExperts.com
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Hughes Doubtful for Game 4
Injury woes have struck Larry Hughes again. For the second year in a row Larry Hughes may sit out an NBA playoff game against Detroit.
The starting point guard sprained his left foot in the first quarter of the Cavaliers' 88-82 win in Game 3. Hughes was quoted as saying, "I haven't been faced with something this painful. I can hardly put any pressure on it."
Hughes career has been slowed by injuries. Last season Hughes missed 45 games with a finger injury. If Hughes sits out Game 3, Snow may slide back into the starting lineup. Cleveland is a 1 point dog in tonight's match up. Even if Hughes suits up tonight he will not be 100% and will hinder Cleveland's chances of pulling off a Game 3 win.
Peter Schoenke
ATSExperts.com
The starting point guard sprained his left foot in the first quarter of the Cavaliers' 88-82 win in Game 3. Hughes was quoted as saying, "I haven't been faced with something this painful. I can hardly put any pressure on it."
Hughes career has been slowed by injuries. Last season Hughes missed 45 games with a finger injury. If Hughes sits out Game 3, Snow may slide back into the starting lineup. Cleveland is a 1 point dog in tonight's match up. Even if Hughes suits up tonight he will not be 100% and will hinder Cleveland's chances of pulling off a Game 3 win.
Peter Schoenke
ATSExperts.com
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Thursday's Hot and Cold - MLB Starting Pitching
We all know that if your team expects to win the World Series, they better have a strong starting rotation and a deep bullpen. The ATSBets staff has put together a short list of hot and cold pitchers in MLB that may or may not help their team achieve the ultimate reward.
Tom Gorzelanny (Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2, 2.43 ERA)
The Pirates certainly do not have the best bullpen to support Gorzelanny, but he has enjoyed some success against defending World Series champs St. Louis Cardinals. He has allowed only one run in his two starts against the champs this season. Gorzelanny will take the hill today vs. the Cards.
John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves 6-2, 2.85 ERA)
Smoltz is just one win away from becoming the NL's first 7 game winner. The Braves host the Mets today and Smoltz is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA at Turner field. The Braves are favored today as Smoltz takes the mound against former teammate Tom Glavine.
Chris Young (San Diego Padres, 5-3 2.89 ERA)
Young has won three of four starts in May to turn around his season from a mediocre April. The big right hander has allowed one earned run over 20 1/3 innings at Petco Park. The books are favoring the Padres tonight as they host the Cubs.
Cold
Jae Seo (Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2-4, 7.80 ERA)
It may be time for Seo to find another role in MLB. Perhaps in the minor leagues? Seo has recorded just three wins in 25 starts since his move to Tampa Bay last June. Saturday Seo gave up seven runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in a 7-2 loss to Florida. The D-Rays are underdogs at home today as they host Seattle.
Rodney Whitehurst
ATSExperts.com
Tom Gorzelanny (Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2, 2.43 ERA)
The Pirates certainly do not have the best bullpen to support Gorzelanny, but he has enjoyed some success against defending World Series champs St. Louis Cardinals. He has allowed only one run in his two starts against the champs this season. Gorzelanny will take the hill today vs. the Cards.
John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves 6-2, 2.85 ERA)
Smoltz is just one win away from becoming the NL's first 7 game winner. The Braves host the Mets today and Smoltz is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA at Turner field. The Braves are favored today as Smoltz takes the mound against former teammate Tom Glavine.
Chris Young (San Diego Padres, 5-3 2.89 ERA)
Young has won three of four starts in May to turn around his season from a mediocre April. The big right hander has allowed one earned run over 20 1/3 innings at Petco Park. The books are favoring the Padres tonight as they host the Cubs.
Cold
Jae Seo (Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2-4, 7.80 ERA)
It may be time for Seo to find another role in MLB. Perhaps in the minor leagues? Seo has recorded just three wins in 25 starts since his move to Tampa Bay last June. Saturday Seo gave up seven runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in a 7-2 loss to Florida. The D-Rays are underdogs at home today as they host Seattle.
Rodney Whitehurst
ATSExperts.com
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Impact Rookie Wideouts
It is a big leap from NCAAF to NFL. Most rookies eventually hit the wall towards the end of the season which truly lets a rookie know the rigorous difference in NCAAF and NFL schedules. Let's take a look at the rookie receivers that were top picks that may or may not impact the league next season.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit (#2 pick)
Standing at 6-4 and possessing great speed, Detroit will line up with Johnson on one side and Roy Williams on the other. With Mike Martz calling the shots in Detroit, Johnson should be able to make a small impact as long as John Kitna is protected and will be able to get him the ball.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (#23 pick)
Kansas City will be a good fit for Bowe as Tony Gonzalez is currently the only weapon in the passing game. Bowe should be able to come in and make an impact as the other Chiefs receivers, Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker, don't have the potential to become a true number one.
Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina Panthers (#45 pick)
Dwayne Jarrett must have impressed the Panthers as they released Keyshawn Johnson after the draft. Due to Jarrett's size he will be an impact within the red zone. Jarrett doesn't have great speed so he will not be a deep threat. As long as the Panthers utilize his strengths, Jarrett should be able to help them in his rookie season.
Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis (#32 pick)
The Colts hope Gonzalez can fill the role of Brandon Stokley this season. Gonzalez possesses good speed and good hands. He was slightly under shadowed at Ohio State by Ted Ginn, but he is no slouch. Gonzalez will be the third option after Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
Ted Ginn, Miami (#9 pick)
Dolphin's fans were as shocked as all of us when Miami selected Ted Ginn at #9 over Brady Quinn. Ginn has great speed and will impose an immediate deep threat impact. Ginn can be used on special teams as a punt/kick return option as well. This could be a good fit for Ginn as he will not be used as the number one option as Chris Chambers fits that role.
JB Floyd
ATSExperts.com
Calvin Johnson, Detroit (#2 pick)
Standing at 6-4 and possessing great speed, Detroit will line up with Johnson on one side and Roy Williams on the other. With Mike Martz calling the shots in Detroit, Johnson should be able to make a small impact as long as John Kitna is protected and will be able to get him the ball.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (#23 pick)
Kansas City will be a good fit for Bowe as Tony Gonzalez is currently the only weapon in the passing game. Bowe should be able to come in and make an impact as the other Chiefs receivers, Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker, don't have the potential to become a true number one.
Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina Panthers (#45 pick)
Dwayne Jarrett must have impressed the Panthers as they released Keyshawn Johnson after the draft. Due to Jarrett's size he will be an impact within the red zone. Jarrett doesn't have great speed so he will not be a deep threat. As long as the Panthers utilize his strengths, Jarrett should be able to help them in his rookie season.
Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis (#32 pick)
The Colts hope Gonzalez can fill the role of Brandon Stokley this season. Gonzalez possesses good speed and good hands. He was slightly under shadowed at Ohio State by Ted Ginn, but he is no slouch. Gonzalez will be the third option after Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
Ted Ginn, Miami (#9 pick)
Dolphin's fans were as shocked as all of us when Miami selected Ted Ginn at #9 over Brady Quinn. Ginn has great speed and will impose an immediate deep threat impact. Ginn can be used on special teams as a punt/kick return option as well. This could be a good fit for Ginn as he will not be used as the number one option as Chris Chambers fits that role.
JB Floyd
ATSExperts.com
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Trends of Detroit and Chicago
ATS Trends
Detroit
Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Pistons are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pistons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Pistons are 11-4-3 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Pistons are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Chicago
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Bulls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
OU Trends
Detroit
Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 10-1-1 in Pistons last 12 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 14-3-1 in Pistons last 18 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 21-7 in Pistons last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 24-8-1 in Pistons last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 46-18-1 in Pistons last 65 games as an underdog.
Under is 38-15-1 in Pistons last 54 Thursday games.
Over is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 road games.
Under is 42-17-1 in Pistons last 60 games as a road underdog.
Under is 37-15-1 in Pistons last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 43-20-1 in Pistons last 64 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Chicago
Under is 7-1 in Bulls last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 overall.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Detroit
Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Pistons are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pistons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Pistons are 11-4-3 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Pistons are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Chicago
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Bulls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
OU Trends
Detroit
Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 10-1-1 in Pistons last 12 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 14-3-1 in Pistons last 18 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 21-7 in Pistons last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 24-8-1 in Pistons last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 46-18-1 in Pistons last 65 games as an underdog.
Under is 38-15-1 in Pistons last 54 Thursday games.
Over is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 road games.
Under is 42-17-1 in Pistons last 60 games as a road underdog.
Under is 37-15-1 in Pistons last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 43-20-1 in Pistons last 64 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Chicago
Under is 7-1 in Bulls last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 overall.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
QB Controversy
Miami Dolphins new Head Coach Cam Cameron has his hands full with the decision as to who will hover over the center this season. The Dolphins QB depth chart is very crowded and could get even more interesting if veteran Trent Green joins the mix. Here is a rundown of what the Dolphin's QB chart looks like:
Draft Pick John Beck (BYU) - Beck is the Dolphin's project this year. Beck did play a pass offense at BYU and he certainly has the arm to succeed in the NFL in the future. And since he did play in the MWC conference there will be a significant increase in competition. There are no easy games in the NFL and Beck will need time to develop.
Daunte Culpepper - When Daunte was brought into Miami he was considered to be the one to bring the Dolphins back to the Marino days, however, he has been nothing short of a bust. Over the past 2 seasons he has played in eleven games. There is no doubt that Culpepper has the skills, but his lingering knee injuries have caught up with him. The Dolphins cannot rely on Culpepper and this is evident with their draft pick and trade talk about bringing in Trent Green.
Trent Green - Although Green is still wearing a Chiefs uniform, he is the wild card. It is assumed that Green will report to the Dolphins camp this year and not to the Chiefs. Green is familiar with Coach Cameron and would make for a nice mentor to John Beck.
Cleo Lemon - Arkansas State product, Cleo Lemon, is very raw but he has played in 4 games last season and made one start. Lemon passed for 412 yards and two touchdowns and showed good mobility during his short trial last season.
The Dolphins will likely determine the starting QB by the end of preseason. If Culpepper is on his way out, look for Green to start. If not, we suspect Culpepper and Green will battle till the end.
JB Floyd
ATSExperts.com
Draft Pick John Beck (BYU) - Beck is the Dolphin's project this year. Beck did play a pass offense at BYU and he certainly has the arm to succeed in the NFL in the future. And since he did play in the MWC conference there will be a significant increase in competition. There are no easy games in the NFL and Beck will need time to develop.
Daunte Culpepper - When Daunte was brought into Miami he was considered to be the one to bring the Dolphins back to the Marino days, however, he has been nothing short of a bust. Over the past 2 seasons he has played in eleven games. There is no doubt that Culpepper has the skills, but his lingering knee injuries have caught up with him. The Dolphins cannot rely on Culpepper and this is evident with their draft pick and trade talk about bringing in Trent Green.
Trent Green - Although Green is still wearing a Chiefs uniform, he is the wild card. It is assumed that Green will report to the Dolphins camp this year and not to the Chiefs. Green is familiar with Coach Cameron and would make for a nice mentor to John Beck.
Cleo Lemon - Arkansas State product, Cleo Lemon, is very raw but he has played in 4 games last season and made one start. Lemon passed for 412 yards and two touchdowns and showed good mobility during his short trial last season.
The Dolphins will likely determine the starting QB by the end of preseason. If Culpepper is on his way out, look for Green to start. If not, we suspect Culpepper and Green will battle till the end.
JB Floyd
ATSExperts.com
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Will the Bulls Put up a Fight?
As evident by the odds posted by the oddsmakers for Thursday's Game 3 between the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons, there is belief that the Bulls will bounce back. The Bulls have been outscored by 47 points during the first two games, so home court advantage and a must win game has given the Bulls a 2 point edge for Thursday night's match up.
The Bulls have led for 16 seconds in the series and have trailed by at least 10 points during virtually all of the last seven quarters. The Bulls were beaten on both ends of the court losing the opening game 95-69 and suffered a 108-87 spanking in Game 2.
Detroit seemed to have no problems with the Chicago zone defense as the Pistons shot 52.6% from the floor in Game 2 and out-rebounded the Bulls 51-30.
The Bulls are 25-17-1 against the spread at home this season, while the Pistons are 29-13 ATS on the road. May the best team win!
Jack Pappano
ATSExperts.com
The Bulls have led for 16 seconds in the series and have trailed by at least 10 points during virtually all of the last seven quarters. The Bulls were beaten on both ends of the court losing the opening game 95-69 and suffered a 108-87 spanking in Game 2.
Detroit seemed to have no problems with the Chicago zone defense as the Pistons shot 52.6% from the floor in Game 2 and out-rebounded the Bulls 51-30.
The Bulls are 25-17-1 against the spread at home this season, while the Pistons are 29-13 ATS on the road. May the best team win!
Jack Pappano
ATSExperts.com
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
ATS Experts NBA Handicapping Records L30
For those of you interested in banking off the shots of our NBA Experts, you can view our records by clicking on the link below. Our experts expect to have successful NBA playoff run and we look forward to helping our members earn profits while doing so. Check out the stats below.
http://www.atsexperts.com/atsrecords.php
http://www.atsexperts.com/atsrecords.php
Padres Trend in May
The Padres are 46-18 in the month of May since 2005 season, including a 5-2 record heading into Wednesday's game to start the month this year. Last year San Diego posted a 19-10 record during May and the year before that finished the month 22-6.
Geoff Blum was quoted as saying, "May the past two years has put us into the postseason". If this is true, teams that start out in the hole will be looking up all season.
Most handicappers will write this off as sheer coincidence with a slight mental edge from the Padres players. A couple of losses could surely shake the confidence of the Padres and swing this trend the other way. Last year, the Padres' pitching was the biggest reason for their success and posted an NL best 3.58 team ERA in May.
This season the Padres are 18-15, hitting 2.39 and putting up between four and five runs per game. They currently rank seventh in the NL in ERA and have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing up the starting rotation.
Mike Harmon
ATSNetwork.com
Geoff Blum was quoted as saying, "May the past two years has put us into the postseason". If this is true, teams that start out in the hole will be looking up all season.
Most handicappers will write this off as sheer coincidence with a slight mental edge from the Padres players. A couple of losses could surely shake the confidence of the Padres and swing this trend the other way. Last year, the Padres' pitching was the biggest reason for their success and posted an NL best 3.58 team ERA in May.
This season the Padres are 18-15, hitting 2.39 and putting up between four and five runs per game. They currently rank seventh in the NL in ERA and have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing up the starting rotation.
Mike Harmon
ATSNetwork.com
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Money Makers
It's never too early in my book to display which MLB teams are sending home the profits. The MLB season is still very young, but there are a few teams we might be able to expect to contribute throughout the season.
Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers are a top a weak National League Central, however, they may be the surprise team in '07? The Brewers have been doing it both at home and away. With a 16-9 record, look for the Brewers to be in the NL race up until the end.
Boston Red Sox - No surprise here. With a dynamic batting order and an extremely solid pitching staff, the Red Sox are trying to rebound from last years disappointing end of the season. The Red Sox are a well rounded team and will put up one hell of a fight to contend for the World Series crown.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians are showing signs that there will be quite a dogfight in the American League Central. The offense and pitching have been timely and have stepped up at the right times. The Indians have contributed to early MLB profits, but the question is whether they can keep it up?
Atlanta Braves - After losing the NL East for the first time in 12 years, the Braves are trying to bounce back from the '06 season. There will be great competition down the stretch with the Phillies and Mets battling to win the NL East. The Braves have lost Hampton again for the year and are relying on young talent. It will be interesting to see how they will withstand adversity when it hits.
Arizona Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks are another early surprise on my list and in the NL. They are a very streaky team, starting the season 9-4 and then drop seven of eight before their current run. If Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson can stay healthy, Arizona will be around all season long.
Mike Harmon
ATSExperts.com
Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers are a top a weak National League Central, however, they may be the surprise team in '07? The Brewers have been doing it both at home and away. With a 16-9 record, look for the Brewers to be in the NL race up until the end.
Boston Red Sox - No surprise here. With a dynamic batting order and an extremely solid pitching staff, the Red Sox are trying to rebound from last years disappointing end of the season. The Red Sox are a well rounded team and will put up one hell of a fight to contend for the World Series crown.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians are showing signs that there will be quite a dogfight in the American League Central. The offense and pitching have been timely and have stepped up at the right times. The Indians have contributed to early MLB profits, but the question is whether they can keep it up?
Atlanta Braves - After losing the NL East for the first time in 12 years, the Braves are trying to bounce back from the '06 season. There will be great competition down the stretch with the Phillies and Mets battling to win the NL East. The Braves have lost Hampton again for the year and are relying on young talent. It will be interesting to see how they will withstand adversity when it hits.
Arizona Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks are another early surprise on my list and in the NL. They are a very streaky team, starting the season 9-4 and then drop seven of eight before their current run. If Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson can stay healthy, Arizona will be around all season long.
Mike Harmon
ATSExperts.com
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