MLB Perceptions: How They Affect Betting Lines

Sometimes what we see is not reality. Many Las Vegas casinos and offshore books live in a fantasy world and its up to the smart handicappers to see teams for what they really are.
Case in point, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were the darlings of baseball at 24-10 back on May 10 and had dominated in all facets of the game. They outscored their opponents 59-19 during a 9-1 stretch and were leading the National League with a winning percentage of 71%.
The media can have a huge affect on the betting lines of certain games by continually pumping up teams that are the talk of the town. With all the hype over the Brewers, many folks forgot that they had just come off a 10-game homestand, which saw the likes of the Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals visit Milwaukee. Hmm, could that have been the reason the team was allowing less than two runs per game?
As soon as reality hit the Brewers, they stumbled, and the smart gamblers were right on top of the action to cash in. Milwaukee has won only four of its next 16 games and if one had bet $100 against the Brew Crew in every contest since they defeated Washington on May 9, they'd be up $1,032. Not bad for 18-day stretch!
Another misconception that still rears its ugly head is the thought that the Yankees are a good baseball team. It is incomprehensible that on May 29, this club is still getting the respect it has so richly undeserved for quite some time. The Bronx Bombers have dropped 12 of their last 17 games, and yet, were favored in all but two of those contests. Not only is betting on the Yankees one of best ways to throw money away, wagering against them is a surefire way to increase the bankroll. If someone had bet the other way in those 17 match- ups, theyd be up $1,165.
Once again, the key word perception comes into play. It is widely believed that the Yankees will come out of this slump, but when thatll happen is anyones guess. In the meantime, my advice is to bet against them in every single game and thank the stars above that the bookmakers and the public have yet to see the Bombers for what they really are - a team of old veterans with a bullpen that renders on the absurd.
A perfect example of this misperception came last Sunday afternoon against the Angels. Los Angeles has always had success against the Yankees and, in fact, won 17 of the last 25 regular-season meetings, including the first two of the series.
The starters were John Lackey and Mike Mussina. Lackey, 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA, was favored on the road in his last start against a Tigers team, which had won nine of its last 10 at home. Mike Maroth, who was Detroits starter that night, had not lost a game all season and the Tigers were 7-0 in his first seven outings. With that being said, the Angels were still the choice of the bettors.
How in the world then was New York favored over Lackey and the Angels? The Yanks were only .500 at home, while Mussina has been putrid, to say the least. His ERA at Yankee Stadium was over 8.00 and he had allowed 12 runs on 18 hits in his last 12 innings prior to Sundays contest.
It all comes down to one thing and one thing only. The Yankees are still the Yankees and they will get respect until they fall 20 or 30 games out of first place.
LOSING STREAKS
Another misconception that handicappers can take advantage of is when top- notch pitchers are trying to end a teams losing streak. Its been well documented in this space over the past year and a half to never wager on a team knee-deep in a bad stretch. On the contrary, the best thing to do is bet against them and it worked to perfection once again this past Sunday afternoon.
Roy Oswalt was on the hill for the Astros, a team that had lost seven games in a row. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, had victories in three straight games. Not only was Oswalt favored, he was the -145 choice, the highest line the Astros had been on the road all season long! In addition, it wasnt like he was pitching against Micah Owings or Edgar Gonzalez. It was Livan Hernandez, who was coming off two impressive outings, allowing just two runs over his last 15 innings.
The result was a D-Backs victory, an easy 8-4 one at that. Oswalt couldnt save the Stros as he gave up 10 hits and six runs (five earned) in six innings of work. Hernandez went the distance in getting the win, throwing only 114 pitches as opposed to 101 for Oswalt.
MATT CAIN - STRUGGLING UNDER THE LIGHTS
Betting against pitchers, as well as teams, is another way to fatten the wallet.
The Giants Matt Cain is a perfect example. Cain has the stuff to be a dominant hurler in the big leagues for a long time, yet this is still just his second full season in the majors. Bookmakers seem to think hes a seasoned veteran, making him favored in eight of his 10 starts.
The perception of Cain is a pitcher who should win almost every time he hits the mound and the betting lines have reflected that. However, his only two victories have come in day games, which leaves San Francisco 0-8 in the eight night games hes started.
This is not to say he wont turn it around, since the Giants do not score any runs when he pitches (four runs or less in eight of his 10 starts), but its very interesting to see he is leading all NL pitchers currently in the majors at -778 units.
Perception affects the lines for certain teams and pitchers, and one way to beat the book is to realize the difference between fantasy and reality. If done properly, expect a windfall of cash, good enough to pay for a wonderful summer vacation in the Bahamas.

Jack Pappano
ATSExperts.com