Wednesday, September 12, 2007

ATS Expert Free Sports Picks

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Today's Expert Free Picks

MLB: Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox
Handicapper: Mike Harmon
Pick: Colorado Rockies +200

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

ATSH2H - Head to Head Sports Stats, Matchups, News, Scores & Odds

The free H2H community stats serves the sports handicapper industry with critical matchup and game stats that will help you stay in front of the line this season. You will find a wealth of information covering every angle you need to break down your teams and odds.

ATSH2H is unmatched in handicapping stats and team statistics and is your front line for statistical matchups and game analysis. Breakdown your matchups this season with the H2H team insider stats, game previews, live odds, live scores, and player stats.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

NBA Technical Foul

For the past two decades, David Stern has run his league with an iron fist. He has protected the image of the league, its players and officials to a degree unheard of by any commissioner. But in the wake of the news of one of the more shocking, and ongoing, scandals in recent sports history, the Commish seems at a loss. But, true to his nature, he is sticking to his guns, refusing to acknowledge a widespread problem or apologize to the fans
Indeed, Stern was humble and almost perplexed, by the news, but instead of seeming contrite on behalf of the league, he seemed angry and more willing to cast the scandal in a light relative to other sports scandals than be apologetic.
"This is a subject that we discuss at the NBA, the statistical the institution of the statistical development database was at my direction and the institution of the two of the more recent annual review of all that's legal were at my direction," he said at his press conference on Tuesday. "And so I'm aware and have been aware of the threats in place to all sports. We followed with particular interest the recent referee scandal in the German soccer league, the Bundesliga League ..."
Here, amidst the biggest scandal to ever rock his sport's world, he turns to pointing at the relative calamity that befell a German soccer league? Oh, commissioner.
Stern should have approached the podium, said the league was doing its best to cooperate with government officials and then promise his millions of fans around the world that the league would do absolutely everything in its power to protect the integrity of the game and earn back the trust of fans. Instead, he blamed the whole scenario on one rogue agent. Methinks thou doth protest too much, Mr. Stern.
He should have said the league was at fault, after all, it is the body which hires, and protects to a serious fault, all referees from public scrutiny. People have been skeptical for years about the integrity of the league, dating back decades. Now, when the public finally has substantial evidence to which it can point as an example of referee misconduct, Stern refuses to budge in his defense of the officials.
Instead of being outraged that his league has been infiltrated by crooks and cheaters, if only one, Stern went into full PR spin mode and spent 20 minutes praising his officials and the job they all do on behalf of the sport. Here, in a time where Stern should be attempting to act as forthright as ever, he simply could not take off his lawyer's hat.
But Stern is not in a courtroom right now; he is in the much more difficult and capricious court of public opinion. After years of skirting criticism of his league, he had finally been called out by the federal government, but instead of doing his best to win the trust of his fans, who have found yet another and much more concrete reason to stop watching, he defended his baby.
TV ratings have plummeted for years. The regular season is too long and not compelling enough to remain relevant for seven months. The playoff format is a joke. Officiating is the worst in all of sports, and now it appears that at least one of those horrible officials is a joke. And, yet, Stern stands on stage defending a league that is quickly losing all credibility.
The NBA's emperor has no clothes, but he refuses to acknowledge it.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Barry Bonds is Here to Stay

And now, back to our scheduled programming. Right?
Now that Barry Bonds has finally surpassed Hank Aaron with his 756th career home run, we can all go back to enjoying pitcher vs. hitter match-ups and following the chase for pennants in both leagues, can't we? Probably not.
At least we won't have to endure sports columnists and radio personalities talking about an aging slugger on a last place team. Wrong again.
The reason Barry Bonds' chase, and now eclipse, of Hank Aaron got stuck in the craws of baseball fans everywhere over the past 5 years is the same reason people will continue to talk about Bonds for a long time. He broke the most sacred record in a sport that holds numbers and records more sacred than any sport. And he did it all under the heavy suspicion of steroid use.
Bonds has never been a likable character, but make no mistake about it, the reason so many fans will be loathe to ever regard Bonds as the Home Run King is because he cheated, not because he's a bad guy or a bad teammate. He broke the record fans hold nearest and dearest to their hearts, and he most likely did it on steroids.
Baseball has always been a sport that uses numbers to compare generations and players in different leagues. Sure, we can all put an asterisk in our heads when thinking about the numbers of other players in the steroid era, but none of them will ever reach 755. Relativism only gets you so far; it stops at the top of the record book. Sure, you can say Sammy Sosa probably cheated, but he hasn't forever marred the record books. Bonds has, and that can never be changed.
Records are meant to be broken; that's why people get so excited by the pursuit of them, whether it be a player on a 30-game hitting streak chasing Joe DiMaggio or a pitcher with 17 strikeouts entering the ninth inning. But people want to see those records broken by people who do not have dark cloud lingering over them, whether there is a legal conviction of wrong doing or not. With Bonds' passing of Aaron, people feel cheated; they feel betrayed; they feel the integrity of the game has been destroyed by someone who compromised his ethics for personal glory. And that betrayal spawns indignation that will be around as long as the record book is.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Behind the Plate Numbers

There are several factors that go into handicapping MLB matchups. Some obvious things that Sharps look at are pitching matchups (how teams perform against lefties), bullpen efficiency, runner's left on base, winning and losing streaks, home and road dichotomies. But some of my most critical information all depends on who is working the game that night. What study the umpires? You bet. Umpire tendencies and tight or large strike zones is one of the best kept secrets handicapping.
Taking a closer look at the numbers of the men that officiate pro baseball is definitely worth your time and effort and can have a positive influence on the overall health of your summertime bankroll. Take the time to study your umps this year and track their trends of scoring and balls and strikes ratio's to determine which guy's in blue are "overs" friendly and who is "unders" friendly. You will also find this information key to hitter information as well.
Below are some umpires that show home and road dichotomy's and an influence on Totals propositions.
Keep in mind that MLB crews are not known until about one hour before the first game of a series. But you will know in advance who will be behind the plate from game two forward as that will be the first base umpire from the game before.
If you like a home team to win, what better umpires to have this season than Dan Iassogna (6-0), Tim Timmons (5-0), CB Bucknor (5-0), Randy Marsh (7-1) and Sam Holbrook (7-1)? Look out for these and other umpires that have had home cookin’ tendencies over the past few seasons. You will be surprised at how many units these guys can add to your bankroll, under the right circumstances.
If your backing the road team, then you want Marvin Hudson (6-0), Brian Gorman (5-1), Bruce Dreckman (5-1), Martin Foster (5-1) and Jeff Nelson (5-1) with the brush in his hand. These guys are a combined 1-16 with the home team lined as chalk. Coincidence? Not at 1-16 it's not.
The one area that the umpire has the greatest control over is the strike zone. If the home plate umpire has a small strike zone this forces pitchers to be more precise and places more pitches over the heart of the plate. This style of umpiring can lead to more high scoring games and Overs. Conversely, umpires that call a high number of strikes means more low scoring affairs, favoring the under.
In short a good 'Under' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 3:1 or higher. A good 'OVER' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 2:1 or less.
Look out for Joe West (5-0), Jim Reynolds (5-1), James Hoye (5-1) and Bruce Dreckman (5-1). These guys have real small strike zones and hand out free passes to first base as though they were handing out free hot drinks from the soup wagon to the homeless. The first three umpires named have less than a 1.9:1 K/BB ratio. So are you taking the unders or overs with Joe West behind the plate?
Umpires with big strike zones who contribute to lower scoring games are Doug Eddings (5-2), Jeff Nelson (4-1) and John Hirschbeck (3-1). Clearly, these member's of the blue brigade must have early restaurant reservations to keep. Keep a real close eye on these three guys, as last season Eddings was 20-14, Nelson was 20-12, and Hirschbeck was 17-7 all to the 'Under'.
The undoubted ‘Under’ king of this trio is Doug Eddings as he has a tendency to call a very high percentage of "strikes". Eddings doesn't call a lot of balls and an average game features 18 strikeouts for every 6 walks (67%). With Doug's numbers he is undoubtedly the best "Under" Umpire over the last five years in MLB Handicapping.
There is a ton of stats information to sort thru when handicapping baseball, but you have got to start looking closer behind the plate this season if you are going to up your batting average this season.

Jimmy Toliver
ATSExperts.com

Monday, June 25, 2007

2007 NBA Draft Preview

The 2007 draft may be the start of a wild and crazy offseason in the NBA. The top two picks are expected to be franchise players who have the ability to turn a pair of clubs into instant playoff contenders.
The 2007 NBA Draft is scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 28th at The WaMu Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York. There are two rounds and a total of 60 picks will be made.
When this year's version of the NBA Draft becomes a part of history, Portland will be the big winner. While many believe the Trail Blazers are going to make Ohio State's Greg Oden the No. 1 overall selection in the draft, specualtion has arisen that Texas' Kevin Durant may have entered the picture. Both Durant and Oden are expected to be a franchise players that could make an immediate impact during their rookie seasons..
Seattle, which is expected to lose forward Rashard Lewis in free agency during the offseason, will then have the opportunity to add Oden or the multi- talented Durant with the second pick.
After Oden and Durant, nothing is guaranteed. Atlanta, Memphis and Boston round out the top-five selections. The Hawks and Grizzlies will both be happy with either Al Horford of Florida or North Carolina's Brandan Wright. If Horford and Wright go at No. 3 and No. 4, the Celtics are in a tough spot and that's where the fun may begin.
All-Stars Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion and Jermaine O'Neal will all be mentioned throughout draft night and into the summer as parts of major trades. The Lakers-Bryant soap opera is still in its infant stages, while Minnesota's Garnett, Marion of Phoenix and Indiana's O'Neal have heard their names come up before in trade talk.
The Celtics still want to win with Paul Pierce as one of the stars of the show. Trying to acquire Garnett, Marion or O'Neal would be a major step in that direction. If Oden, Durant, Horford and Wright are gone with the first four picks, Boston may try and use the fifth selection as a chip in a blockbuster deal to acquire an All-Star player.
Forwards Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah of Florida, Florida State's Al Thornton, Georgetown's Jeff Green, Julian Wright of Kansas, Yi Jianlian of China, and center Spencer Hawes of Washington and point guards Mike Conley of Ohio State, Texas A&M's Acie Law and Javaris Crittenton of Georgia Tech are some of the names that are expected to go in the opening round of the draft. Like drafts of year's past, there is a lot of potential, which may be the most dangerous word in sports.
Milwaukee, Minnesota, Charlotte, Chicago, Sacramento, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New Orleans and the Clippers represent the remainder of the lottery picks (1-14). The Hawks, who also own Indiana's pick from a past trade, have a chance to make a big splash with two high selections (3,11). They have needs and will be able to address them on June 28th.
Brewer and Green are ready to contribute in their rookie campaigns, while Thornton and Hawes' stock are on the rise and Conley is considered the best point guard in the draft. There are questions about Noah's ability to succeed at the next level, and Yi has impressed at his workouts but is still considered a gamble.
After careful thought, Green and Hawes decided to stay in the draft and are expected to be rewarded by being selected in the top 10. Atlanta needs a point guard and would love to get Conley with one of their picks. If the Hawks go big at No. 3, Conley will most likely be gone by the time they pick again. Crittenton or Law would be next on the board at the point.
If the Lakers, who have the 19th overall selection, decide to seriously pursue trading Bryant, Chicago is a possible fit. The Bulls have young, talented players in Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. The ninth overall pick would almost certainly be part of any kind of package.
The Bucks are trying to find a player at No. 6 who will fit in with a nucleus of center Andrew Bogut and sharp-shooting Michael Redd, while the Timberwolves are a team in need of direction and have to decide if Garnett is still the cornerstone of the franchise. The Bobcats are trying to become a playoff contender, the Kings, who missed the playoffs for the first time in nine years, hope the 10th overall pick will help get them back to the postseason and Philadelphia is rebuilding. The Clippers and Hornets are playoff contenders who would like to add someone who can contribute right away.
Atlanta (3, 11) Charlotte (8, 22), Detroit (15, 27) and Phoenix (24, 29) all own a pair of first-round picks, while Philadelphia has three (12, 21, 30). Cleveland, Denver, Indiana and Toronto are all shut out with no picks heading into the draft. Dallas and Orlando don't have a first-round selection this year.
Oden and Durant make this a solid draft. Trade talk could steal the spotlight after the first two picks, as teams like Boston, Minnesota and the Lakers may be looking to make a big splash with a mind-boggling deal.
It should be an entertaining night for NBA fans.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

ATSH2H - Head to Head Sports Stats

The free H2H community stats serves the sports handicapper industry with critical matchup and game stats that will help you stay in the front of the line this season. You will find a wealth of information covering every angle you need to break down your teams and odds.

ATSH2H is unmatched in handicapping stats and team statistics and is your front line for statistical matchups and game analysis. Breakdown your matchups this season with the H2H team insider stats, game previews, live odds, live scores, and player stats.

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Tuesday, June 5, 2007

2007 NBA Finals Breakdown

I am very excited about the upcoming 2007 NBA Finals between San Antonio and Cleveland. LeBron James has clearly played himself into the upper echelon of NBA players. Here is a position - by - position breakdown of the Finals.

Center: Fabrcio Oberto vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
The difference between these two center's impacts is that the Cavs will look for Ilgauskas early and throughout the game to establish the inside game where the Spurs rarely run plays for Oberto. Oberto is a high energy player and will always log quality minutes. Ilgauskas is an All-Star and Oberto fills space.
Advantage: Cavaliers

Power Forward: Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden
Is there really a need to break down these two? A three-time NBA Finals MVP, Duncan has been nothing short of extraordinary in the postseason. Drew Gooden has really not made a name for himself in the NBA, but fits in nicely with the Cavaliers offense. "Fitting in" will not cut it against the Spurs.
Advantage: Spurs

Small Forward: Bruce Bowen vs. LeBron James
Bowen is one of the NBA's top perimeter defenders and has agitated stars this postseason and will be sure to pester James. James is one of the best at attacking the hoop and when he is on his game no one can stop him. James has worked well by incorporating every teammate on the floor and will be sure to do so in the Finals.
Advantage: Cavaliers

Shooting Guard: Michael Finley vs. Sasha Pavlovic
The veteran Finley is starting to find his shot and is a threat from the perimeter. Pavlovic has had a couple double digit scoring games in the East semifinals.
Advantage: Spurs

Point Guard: Tony Parker vs. Larry Hughes
Tony Parker has developed into one of the games best point guards and his ability to attack the basket and dish out will give the Cavs problems. Larry Hughes is still battling an injury and is a very inconsistent player.
Advantage: Spurs

Coaches: Gregg Popovich vs. Mike Brown
Three victorious trips for Pop will be the difference maker in this series. Bluntly put, the Spurs roster is filled with veteran players and the Cavs are making their first trip to the Finals.
Advantage: Spurs

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

MLB Perceptions: How They Affect Betting Lines

Sometimes what we see is not reality. Many Las Vegas casinos and offshore books live in a fantasy world and its up to the smart handicappers to see teams for what they really are.
Case in point, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were the darlings of baseball at 24-10 back on May 10 and had dominated in all facets of the game. They outscored their opponents 59-19 during a 9-1 stretch and were leading the National League with a winning percentage of 71%.
The media can have a huge affect on the betting lines of certain games by continually pumping up teams that are the talk of the town. With all the hype over the Brewers, many folks forgot that they had just come off a 10-game homestand, which saw the likes of the Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals visit Milwaukee. Hmm, could that have been the reason the team was allowing less than two runs per game?
As soon as reality hit the Brewers, they stumbled, and the smart gamblers were right on top of the action to cash in. Milwaukee has won only four of its next 16 games and if one had bet $100 against the Brew Crew in every contest since they defeated Washington on May 9, they'd be up $1,032. Not bad for 18-day stretch!
Another misconception that still rears its ugly head is the thought that the Yankees are a good baseball team. It is incomprehensible that on May 29, this club is still getting the respect it has so richly undeserved for quite some time. The Bronx Bombers have dropped 12 of their last 17 games, and yet, were favored in all but two of those contests. Not only is betting on the Yankees one of best ways to throw money away, wagering against them is a surefire way to increase the bankroll. If someone had bet the other way in those 17 match- ups, theyd be up $1,165.
Once again, the key word perception comes into play. It is widely believed that the Yankees will come out of this slump, but when thatll happen is anyones guess. In the meantime, my advice is to bet against them in every single game and thank the stars above that the bookmakers and the public have yet to see the Bombers for what they really are - a team of old veterans with a bullpen that renders on the absurd.
A perfect example of this misperception came last Sunday afternoon against the Angels. Los Angeles has always had success against the Yankees and, in fact, won 17 of the last 25 regular-season meetings, including the first two of the series.
The starters were John Lackey and Mike Mussina. Lackey, 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA, was favored on the road in his last start against a Tigers team, which had won nine of its last 10 at home. Mike Maroth, who was Detroits starter that night, had not lost a game all season and the Tigers were 7-0 in his first seven outings. With that being said, the Angels were still the choice of the bettors.
How in the world then was New York favored over Lackey and the Angels? The Yanks were only .500 at home, while Mussina has been putrid, to say the least. His ERA at Yankee Stadium was over 8.00 and he had allowed 12 runs on 18 hits in his last 12 innings prior to Sundays contest.
It all comes down to one thing and one thing only. The Yankees are still the Yankees and they will get respect until they fall 20 or 30 games out of first place.
LOSING STREAKS
Another misconception that handicappers can take advantage of is when top- notch pitchers are trying to end a teams losing streak. Its been well documented in this space over the past year and a half to never wager on a team knee-deep in a bad stretch. On the contrary, the best thing to do is bet against them and it worked to perfection once again this past Sunday afternoon.
Roy Oswalt was on the hill for the Astros, a team that had lost seven games in a row. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, had victories in three straight games. Not only was Oswalt favored, he was the -145 choice, the highest line the Astros had been on the road all season long! In addition, it wasnt like he was pitching against Micah Owings or Edgar Gonzalez. It was Livan Hernandez, who was coming off two impressive outings, allowing just two runs over his last 15 innings.
The result was a D-Backs victory, an easy 8-4 one at that. Oswalt couldnt save the Stros as he gave up 10 hits and six runs (five earned) in six innings of work. Hernandez went the distance in getting the win, throwing only 114 pitches as opposed to 101 for Oswalt.
MATT CAIN - STRUGGLING UNDER THE LIGHTS
Betting against pitchers, as well as teams, is another way to fatten the wallet.
The Giants Matt Cain is a perfect example. Cain has the stuff to be a dominant hurler in the big leagues for a long time, yet this is still just his second full season in the majors. Bookmakers seem to think hes a seasoned veteran, making him favored in eight of his 10 starts.
The perception of Cain is a pitcher who should win almost every time he hits the mound and the betting lines have reflected that. However, his only two victories have come in day games, which leaves San Francisco 0-8 in the eight night games hes started.
This is not to say he wont turn it around, since the Giants do not score any runs when he pitches (four runs or less in eight of his 10 starts), but its very interesting to see he is leading all NL pitchers currently in the majors at -778 units.
Perception affects the lines for certain teams and pitchers, and one way to beat the book is to realize the difference between fantasy and reality. If done properly, expect a windfall of cash, good enough to pay for a wonderful summer vacation in the Bahamas.

Jack Pappano
ATSExperts.com

Managers on the Hot Seat

I hand out a yearly predictions sheet prior to every baseball season and we have a little fun with it here at the Sports Network, as we try and figure out who will win the divisions, the MVP and Cy Young awards and things like that.
Last season one of the categories I added was that of first manager to be fired for each league. The powers that be here, though, couldn't add another row to the list without making it look silly, so we decided to scrap it altogether.
In hindsight it was probably a good idea, since there were no major league managers fired in-season during 2006. While we may have had zero changes last season, I think we could have as many as three or four in the coming months.
I would have bet my life before the season that Philadelphia's Charlie Manuel would be gone by now. In fact, I was so sure of it that I was going to choose either Davey Johnson or Jimy Williams as my choice for NL Manager of the Year, since I thought the Phils would start slow, fire Manuel, then get hot and claim the wild card.
Well, they did get off to a horrendous start, but somehow Manuel has weathered the storm and the Phils are playing pretty good baseball right now. Barring a complete collapse now, I cannot see Manuel getting fired. Pat Gillick has only pulled the plug on one of his managers in the middle of a season just one time in all his years as a general manager.
Of course Yankees' manager Joe Torre is the obvious choice to be the first skipper let go, but I don't think he is going anywhere either, especially since Roger Clemens is coming back next week. I wouldn't be surprised if Clemens got some assurances from George Steinbrenner that Torre's job is safe just to get him to come to New York.
Torre, though, is not the only manager in the AL East that is on the hot seat, as Baltimore's Sam Perlozzo and Toronto's John Gibbons both could be looking for work soon.
Despite the Orioles' improved play of late, that team is a mess and Perlozzo has completely lost control. If you don't believe me, just listen to some of the Orioles players, as a number of veterans have come out in recent weeks questioning some of their managers' moves.
Third baseman Melvin Mora was the latest to voice concern. Apparently Mora was peeved that he wasn't told he was not going to be in the starting lineup last Friday against the Oakland Athletics.
"I'm not upset that I'm not in there. I'm upset that they don't communicate with me," Mora said before batting practice. "I could've worked out or come here and worked early. I'm not the kind of guy that wants to work early and play the game, because I don't want to be tired. (Perlozzo's) the boss and he can do anything he wants with the lineup. I don't mind that. He can give me a day off. But we're veteran players here, and we need to know what's happening the next day."
Mora, who nearly came to blows following an on-field confrontation with teammate and longtime friend Jay Payton a few weeks ago, felt Perlozzo did not show him the respect he deserved.
"Mike Hargrove did it. Even Lee Mazzilli did it," Mora added. "I wasn't playing in the big leagues for a long time with the Mets, but Bobby Valentine would tell me, 'You've got a day off tomorrow.' Or, 'You're going to face Tom Glavine tomorrow.' This game is about communication. This game is like how you are with your wife. If you get good communication with your relationship, your relationship's going to be strong. That's the bottom line.
"That's why I see so many players playing hard for their manager -- because their manager treats them well. That's why you see a player like Curt Schilling bleeding on the mound -- because he wants to do everything for Terry Francona."
There have also been reports that the 67-year-old Johnson or reigning NL Manager of the Year Joe Girardi could step in if Perlozzo is in fact fired. One thing Perlozzo has going for him, though, is that only one manager has been let go in-season under owner Peter Angelos' watch. That was Perlozzo's predecessor, Lee Mazzilli.
Gibbons, meanwhile, is probably safer than I think. His team has been ravaged by injuries, most notably to closer B.J. Ryan and staff ace Roy Halladay. But big things were expected from the Blue Jays this season and they have severely underachieved.
Plus let's not forget Gibbons' track record from last year. Not only did he have a pretty public feud with infielder Shea Hillenbrand, but he also got into a physical altercation with starter Ted Lilly.
Halladay will be back this week, but if things continue to go south north of the border, Gibbons will be gone.
Over in the National League, Cincinnati's Jerry Narron has to be checking the Help Wanted ads in the classifieds.
After a promising 2006 campaign, the Reds were picked by some to win the under-whelming Central this year, but they have been the league's worst team with a 19-33 record. And unfortunately for Narron, things don't seem to be getting better anytime soon.
Adam Dunn is a mess. He continues to pile up strikeouts in droves. Some Reds fans I know think the team is going to be able to deal him. I have news for them, nobody wants him. There is a reason Dunn is still on the team now, and that's because nobody wanted him in the offseason. The only way the Reds are going to be able to deal him is if they get 35 cents on the dollar.
The bullpen that general manager Wayne Krivsky worked so hard to improve last season and over the winter has been atrocious. Not only do the Reds have an NL-worst nine saves, but the 4.78 bullpen earned run average is second-worst in the league. Eddie Guardado, though, should be back soon. And if that does not get you excited in Cincinnati, then nothing will.
If I was a betting man - which I am not anymore - I would say Perlozzo has the best shot of going, followed by Narron and Gibbons. Of course, all that could change if the Yankees are swept in Boston this coming weekend. Because Clemens or no Clemens, Steinbrenner will not stand for that and Torre and his four rings will be out of there faster than a New York minute.
Either way, though, I have a feeling that a change could be in the air somewhere soon.

Roger Pitzer
ATSExperts.com

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Hughes Doubtful for Game 4

Injury woes have struck Larry Hughes again. For the second year in a row Larry Hughes may sit out an NBA playoff game against Detroit.

The starting point guard sprained his left foot in the first quarter of the Cavaliers' 88-82 win in Game 3. Hughes was quoted as saying, "I haven't been faced with something this painful. I can hardly put any pressure on it."

Hughes career has been slowed by injuries. Last season Hughes missed 45 games with a finger injury. If Hughes sits out Game 3, Snow may slide back into the starting lineup. Cleveland is a 1 point dog in tonight's match up. Even if Hughes suits up tonight he will not be 100% and will hinder Cleveland's chances of pulling off a Game 3 win.

Peter Schoenke
ATSExperts.com

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Thursday's Hot and Cold - MLB Starting Pitching

We all know that if your team expects to win the World Series, they better have a strong starting rotation and a deep bullpen. The ATSBets staff has put together a short list of hot and cold pitchers in MLB that may or may not help their team achieve the ultimate reward.

Tom Gorzelanny (Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2, 2.43 ERA)
The Pirates certainly do not have the best bullpen to support Gorzelanny, but he has enjoyed some success against defending World Series champs St. Louis Cardinals. He has allowed only one run in his two starts against the champs this season. Gorzelanny will take the hill today vs. the Cards.

John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves 6-2, 2.85 ERA)
Smoltz is just one win away from becoming the NL's first 7 game winner. The Braves host the Mets today and Smoltz is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA at Turner field. The Braves are favored today as Smoltz takes the mound against former teammate Tom Glavine.

Chris Young (San Diego Padres, 5-3 2.89 ERA)
Young has won three of four starts in May to turn around his season from a mediocre April. The big right hander has allowed one earned run over 20 1/3 innings at Petco Park. The books are favoring the Padres tonight as they host the Cubs.

Cold

Jae Seo (Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2-4, 7.80 ERA)
It may be time for Seo to find another role in MLB. Perhaps in the minor leagues? Seo has recorded just three wins in 25 starts since his move to Tampa Bay last June. Saturday Seo gave up seven runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in a 7-2 loss to Florida. The D-Rays are underdogs at home today as they host Seattle.

Rodney Whitehurst
ATSExperts.com

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Impact Rookie Wideouts

It is a big leap from NCAAF to NFL. Most rookies eventually hit the wall towards the end of the season which truly lets a rookie know the rigorous difference in NCAAF and NFL schedules. Let's take a look at the rookie receivers that were top picks that may or may not impact the league next season.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit (#2 pick)
Standing at 6-4 and possessing great speed, Detroit will line up with Johnson on one side and Roy Williams on the other. With Mike Martz calling the shots in Detroit, Johnson should be able to make a small impact as long as John Kitna is protected and will be able to get him the ball.

Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (#23 pick)
Kansas City will be a good fit for Bowe as Tony Gonzalez is currently the only weapon in the passing game. Bowe should be able to come in and make an impact as the other Chiefs receivers, Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker, don't have the potential to become a true number one.

Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina Panthers (#45 pick)
Dwayne Jarrett must have impressed the Panthers as they released Keyshawn Johnson after the draft. Due to Jarrett's size he will be an impact within the red zone. Jarrett doesn't have great speed so he will not be a deep threat. As long as the Panthers utilize his strengths, Jarrett should be able to help them in his rookie season.

Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis (#32 pick)
The Colts hope Gonzalez can fill the role of Brandon Stokley this season. Gonzalez possesses good speed and good hands. He was slightly under shadowed at Ohio State by Ted Ginn, but he is no slouch. Gonzalez will be the third option after Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

Ted Ginn, Miami (#9 pick)
Dolphin's fans were as shocked as all of us when Miami selected Ted Ginn at #9 over Brady Quinn. Ginn has great speed and will impose an immediate deep threat impact. Ginn can be used on special teams as a punt/kick return option as well. This could be a good fit for Ginn as he will not be used as the number one option as Chris Chambers fits that role.

JB Floyd
ATSExperts.com

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Trends of Detroit and Chicago

ATS Trends
Detroit
Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Pistons are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pistons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Pistons are 11-4-3 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Pistons are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Chicago
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Bulls are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Bulls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
OU Trends
Detroit
Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 10-1-1 in Pistons last 12 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 14-3-1 in Pistons last 18 playoff games as an underdog.

Under is 21-7 in Pistons last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 24-8-1 in Pistons last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 46-18-1 in Pistons last 65 games as an underdog.
Under is 38-15-1 in Pistons last 54 Thursday games.
Over is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 road games.
Under is 42-17-1 in Pistons last 60 games as a road underdog.
Under is 37-15-1 in Pistons last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 43-20-1 in Pistons last 64 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Chicago
Under is 7-1 in Bulls last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 overall.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head
Pistons are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

QB Controversy

Miami Dolphins new Head Coach Cam Cameron has his hands full with the decision as to who will hover over the center this season. The Dolphins QB depth chart is very crowded and could get even more interesting if veteran Trent Green joins the mix. Here is a rundown of what the Dolphin's QB chart looks like:

Draft Pick John Beck (BYU) - Beck is the Dolphin's project this year. Beck did play a pass offense at BYU and he certainly has the arm to succeed in the NFL in the future. And since he did play in the MWC conference there will be a significant increase in competition. There are no easy games in the NFL and Beck will need time to develop.

Daunte Culpepper - When Daunte was brought into Miami he was considered to be the one to bring the Dolphins back to the Marino days, however, he has been nothing short of a bust. Over the past 2 seasons he has played in eleven games. There is no doubt that Culpepper has the skills, but his lingering knee injuries have caught up with him. The Dolphins cannot rely on Culpepper and this is evident with their draft pick and trade talk about bringing in Trent Green.

Trent Green - Although Green is still wearing a Chiefs uniform, he is the wild card. It is assumed that Green will report to the Dolphins camp this year and not to the Chiefs. Green is familiar with Coach Cameron and would make for a nice mentor to John Beck.

Cleo Lemon - Arkansas State product, Cleo Lemon, is very raw but he has played in 4 games last season and made one start. Lemon passed for 412 yards and two touchdowns and showed good mobility during his short trial last season.

The Dolphins will likely determine the starting QB by the end of preseason. If Culpepper is on his way out, look for Green to start. If not, we suspect Culpepper and Green will battle till the end.

JB Floyd
ATSExperts.com

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Will the Bulls Put up a Fight?

As evident by the odds posted by the oddsmakers for Thursday's Game 3 between the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons, there is belief that the Bulls will bounce back. The Bulls have been outscored by 47 points during the first two games, so home court advantage and a must win game has given the Bulls a 2 point edge for Thursday night's match up.

The Bulls have led for 16 seconds in the series and have trailed by at least 10 points during virtually all of the last seven quarters. The Bulls were beaten on both ends of the court losing the opening game 95-69 and suffered a 108-87 spanking in Game 2.

Detroit seemed to have no problems with the Chicago zone defense as the Pistons shot 52.6% from the floor in Game 2 and out-rebounded the Bulls 51-30.

The Bulls are 25-17-1 against the spread at home this season, while the Pistons are 29-13 ATS on the road. May the best team win!

Jack Pappano
ATSExperts.com

Wednesday, May 9, 2007

ATS Experts NBA Handicapping Records L30

For those of you interested in banking off the shots of our NBA Experts, you can view our records by clicking on the link below. Our experts expect to have successful NBA playoff run and we look forward to helping our members earn profits while doing so. Check out the stats below.

http://www.atsexperts.com/atsrecords.php

Padres Trend in May

The Padres are 46-18 in the month of May since 2005 season, including a 5-2 record heading into Wednesday's game to start the month this year. Last year San Diego posted a 19-10 record during May and the year before that finished the month 22-6.

Geoff Blum was quoted as saying, "May the past two years has put us into the postseason". If this is true, teams that start out in the hole will be looking up all season.

Most handicappers will write this off as sheer coincidence with a slight mental edge from the Padres players. A couple of losses could surely shake the confidence of the Padres and swing this trend the other way. Last year, the Padres' pitching was the biggest reason for their success and posted an NL best 3.58 team ERA in May.

This season the Padres are 18-15, hitting 2.39 and putting up between four and five runs per game. They currently rank seventh in the NL in ERA and have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing up the starting rotation.

Mike Harmon
ATSNetwork.com

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Money Makers

It's never too early in my book to display which MLB teams are sending home the profits. The MLB season is still very young, but there are a few teams we might be able to expect to contribute throughout the season.

Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers are a top a weak National League Central, however, they may be the surprise team in '07? The Brewers have been doing it both at home and away. With a 16-9 record, look for the Brewers to be in the NL race up until the end.

Boston Red Sox - No surprise here. With a dynamic batting order and an extremely solid pitching staff, the Red Sox are trying to rebound from last years disappointing end of the season. The Red Sox are a well rounded team and will put up one hell of a fight to contend for the World Series crown.

Cleveland Indians - The Indians are showing signs that there will be quite a dogfight in the American League Central. The offense and pitching have been timely and have stepped up at the right times. The Indians have contributed to early MLB profits, but the question is whether they can keep it up?

Atlanta Braves - After losing the NL East for the first time in 12 years, the Braves are trying to bounce back from the '06 season. There will be great competition down the stretch with the Phillies and Mets battling to win the NL East. The Braves have lost Hampton again for the year and are relying on young talent. It will be interesting to see how they will withstand adversity when it hits.

Arizona Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks are another early surprise on my list and in the NL. They are a very streaky team, starting the season 9-4 and then drop seven of eight before their current run. If Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson can stay healthy, Arizona will be around all season long.

Mike Harmon
ATSExperts.com

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Prior Undergoes Shoulder Surgery; 2007 Season Over

Chicago Cubs pitcher Mark Prior underwent successful right shoulder arthroscopy on Tuesday, ending his 2007 season.
The surgery was performed in Birmingham, Alabama by Dr. James Andrews, who performed a debridement of Prior's right rotator cuff as well as repair of labral and capsular injuries in his shoulder.
Prior began a comprehensive rehabilitation program in Birmingham on Wednesday overseen by Dr. Andrews and the Cubs medical staff and will continue his rehab program into the offseason.
After spring training this year, Prior didn't go with the Cubs to start the season. Instead, he remained behind in Mesa, Arizona for extended spring training. He only had one outing, which ended early because of discomfort in his shoulder.
Prior was 0-2 in four spring training games, three of which were starts, with a 6.97 ERA this year.
Last season, Prior was limited to just nine games because of the shoulder problem, going 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA. Prior to his injuries, he won 18 games in 2003, helping the Cubs reach the NLCS for the first time since 1989.

Phils Option Smith to Minors

The Philadelphia Phillies optioned pitcher Matt Smith to their Triple-A affiliate in Ottawa and recalled pitcher Fabio Castro on Thursday.
The 27-year-old Smith recorded a dismal 11.25 earned run average in nine games for the Phillies this season. He was acquired by Philadelphia last summer as part of the trade that sent Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees.
Smith had a 2.08 ERA in 14 games with Philadelphia in 2006.
Castro, 22, was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in six appearances for Ottawa this season.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Mitchell Named Coach of the Year

Sam Mitchell, who guided the Toronto Raptors to an NBA-best 20-game improvement this season, was named Coach of the Year on Tuesday.
Mitchell garnered 49 first-place votes and 389 points from a panel of 128 sports writers to become the first Raptor head coach to capture the Red Auerbach Trophy.
Utah Jazz head coach Jerry Sloan was second with 301 points (39 first-place votes) and Dallas' Avery Johnson was third with 268 points (28 first-place votes). Candidates were awarded five points for each first-place vote, three points for each second-place vote and one point for each third-place vote received.
In his third season as the Raptors' head coach, Mitchell led his club to its first Atlantic Division title and a franchise-record-tying 47 wins. That gave Toronto the third seed in the Eastern Conference and home court advantage in the playoffs for the first time in team history.
That was a dramatic turnaround, as the Raptors went just 27-55 in 2005-06.
Mitchell played 13 seasons in the NBA before retiring in 2002. It took him just two years as an assistant coach before being tabbed head coach of the Raptors in June of 2004.
The Raptors finished 33-49 in his first season as head coach.

Bengals Sign LB Miller

The Cincinnati Bengals signed restricted free agent linebacker Caleb Miller to a one-year contract on Tuesday.
The versatile Miller appeared in every contest last season for the Bengals and started four games at middle linebacker as well as three games at outside linebacker.
He finished the campaign third on the team in tackles with a career-best 100.
In three seasons with Cincinnati, the former Arkansas product has totaled 150 tackles and one sack.

Lofton Headed Back to Tennessee for Senior Season

Guard Chris Lofton announced on Tuesday he will return to the University of Tennessee for his senior season and will not enter the NBA Draft.
Lofton led the Volunteers and the Southeastern Conference in scoring this past season, averaging 20.8 points per game. He also led the league in three- pointers per game (3.42).
"After reviewing my draft status, I have decided to remain at the University of Tennessee for my senior year," Lofton said. "According to the information that we received from the NBA draft advisory committee I was not guaranteed to be selected in the first round of this year's draft. Because of this, I have decided not to submit my name for the draft. I appreciate all of Coach (Bruce) Pearl's guidance throughout this process. Coming back for my senior year will give me the opportunity to work on my game so I can become a better player. There are also a lot of things that we can accomplish here as a team."
Lofton, the Southeastern Conference player of the year, also announced that he has been invited by USA Basketball to attend the trials for the 2007 Pan American Games Team.

Big Unit Back on the Mound Tuesday

Randy Johnson will make his much anticipated season debut Tuesday night against San Diego after the club activated him from the 15-day disabled list.
The 43-year-old Johnson had back surgery in October then pitched in three rehab starts before being cleared to begin his second stint with the Diamondbacks.
He and Arizona fans hope it's just as successful as the first. Johnson won four of his five Cy Young Awards with Arizona and the club won the 2001 World Series.
Then, Johnson spent two frustrating campaigns with the New York Yankees before being shipped to the desert in a January trade.
To make room on the roster for Johnson, the club optioned right-hander Yusmeiro Petit to Triple-A Tucson.

Rams Acquire Dante Hall

The St. Louis Rams acquired wide receiver/kick returner Dante Hall for a fifth-round selection in the 2007 NFL draft on Wednesday.
Hall returned 53 kickoffs for a 22.8-yard average and 27 punts for an 8.9-yard average and one touchdown in 2006. He also caught 26 passes for two touchdowns.
"We have filled a need with one of the top players in football at his specialty, returning punts and kicks," said Rams head coach Scott Linehan. "Dante will fit in nicely on our special teams and can be utilized as a receiver in certain situations."
Hall is one of the best returners in NFL history with 11 career returns for touchdowns. The eight-year veteran has averaged 24 yards per return on 360 kickoffs and a 10-yard average on 188 punt returns in seven seasons with the Chiefs.
Hall also has two punt return touchdowns in excess of 90 yards in his career and three kickoff returns of more than 97 yards.
With one more kick return for a touchdown, the 28-year old Hall will tie Eric Metcalf for second all-time in the NFL. Brian Mitchell is the all-time leader with 13.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Howard Returns to Lineup for Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing the last three games with a sprained ligament in his left knee.
Howard originally suffered the injury while running out a fielder's choice grounder in the 10th inning of Wednesday's 13-inning 5-4 loss to Washington.
The reigning National League MVP finished 0-for-5 in the game and is hitting just .213 with one home run and seven RBI entering Sunday's contest against the Cincinnati Reds.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Braves Extended Cox Through 2008

The Atlanta Braves signed manager Bobby Cox to a one-year contract extension through the 2008 campaign on Wednesday.
Cox, the winningest coach in Braves franchise history, is in his 26th season as major league skipper and his 22nd year as Atlanta's manager. (1978-81, 1990-present). His 2,180 career wins places him fifth on the all-time wins list and second among active managers.
"No one is more deserving of this than Bobby Cox and we are very pleased to extend his contract through 2008," Braves executive vice president and general manager John Schuerholz said. "We feel that Bobby is the best manager in the game and his place in baseball history is well-secured. His leadership has helped the Braves to set a very high standard of excellence."
Cox has notched 1,825 victories with the Braves and has guided the club to 14 straight division championships, five National League pennants and a World Series title.
The 65-year-old Cox has also led Atlanta to Major League Baseball's best overall record since 1991 (1,519-1,018).

Giants Sign Backup QB Wright

The New York Giants have signed quarterback Anthony Wright to compete for the backup role to Eli Manning.
Wright spent last season with the Cincinnati Bengals, appearing in four games completing all three of his passes for 100 yards.
He has played in 28 games, string 19 times, since coming into the league with the Steelers in 1999. Wright has completed 55.4 percent of his passes for 3,578 yards, 20 touchdowns and 25 interceptions during his career, which also includes stops with Dallas and Baltimore.

NFL Fines Urlacher $100,000

Chicago Bears defensive linchpin Brian Urlacher was fined $100,000 by the NFL on Wednesday for wearing a hat on Super Bowl media day that featured a logo from a company not affiliated with the league.
According to the NFL, it's a longstanding policy that applies year round at league games and events, which includes media day at the Super Bowl.
The 28-year-old Urlacher, who had three interceptions last season, was limited to zero sacks for the first time in his career. However, he helped the Bears to the Super Bowl before losing to Indianapolis.

NCAA Again Approves 32 Bowl Games for Next Season

The NCAA approved and licensed 32 bowl games for the 2007 season, the same as last year.
The approval comes as the NCAA Postseason Football Licensing Subcommittee said about $217.6 million in bowl revenue from this past season was distributed to participating teams and conferences. Approximately 1.6 million fans attended the bowl games.
Existing bowls that have been licensed for 2007-08 include: Alamo, Allstate Sugar, AT&T Cotton, AutoZone Liberty, BCS National Championship, Bell Helicopter Armed Forces, Brut Sun, Capital One, Champs Sports, Chick-fil-A, Emerald, Fed Ex Orange, Gator, Gaylord Hotels Music City, GMAC, Humanitarian, Insight, International, Meineke Car Care, Motor City, New Mexico, Outback, Pacific Life Holiday, Papajohns.com, PetroSun Independence, Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas, R+L Carriers New Orleans, Rose, San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia, Sheraton Hawaii, Texas and Tostitos Fiesta.
"The subcommittee is pleased to license all 32 bowls that took place last year," said Jeff Hathaway, director of athletics at the University of Connecticut and acting chair of the NCAA Postseason Football Licensing Subcommittee. "It shows the good work and management that these bowl organizers have done to create a positive experience for the student- athletes."

Spurs C Oberto Treated for Chest Pains

San Antonio Spurs center Fabricio Oberto felt abnormal sensations in his chest on Wednesday and underwent a procedure to restore his heart to its normal rhythm.
A cardiologist determined that a minor trauma to his chest caused a heart arrhythmia. Oberto returned home after the procedure and is in stable condition.
He will be monitored the next few days and is expected to play in the Spurs' first round series against Denver. Oberto averaged 4.4 points and 4.4 rebounds for San Antonio this season.

NBA Playoffs to begin Saturday

The Dallas Mavericks ripped through the NBA regular season with a league-best 67-15 record, but could they be ripe for an opening-round upset?
The Mavericks easily posted a franchise-record for wins and with Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry leading the way it would seem they'd be hard to stop. That is if they weren't playing the Warriors.
Golden State secured the eighth and final playoff spot, moving to the postseason for the first time since the 1993-94 season with a blowout win at Portland on the final night of the regular season. Now, Baron Davis and Co. get to face a team they went 3-0 against this year.
The Mavericks, in fact, have lost five straight regular season games to the Warriors, but now come the playoffs. Golden State hasn't won a postseason series since 1991, while Dallas hopes to make the next step after losing to Miami in the NBA Finals a year ago.
The NBA playoffs start Saturday with four games, three of them in the Eastern Conference. The Mavericks begin their best-of-seven series Sunday night.
The Central Division-champion Pistons, who were beaten by Miami in the East finals last year, are the top seed in the conference and will take on the Magic, starting Saturday night. This is Orlando's first trip to the playoffs since 2003, when they were beaten by Detroit in the first round. The Pistons dominated the Magic this year, winning all four meetings.
LeBron James leads the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Washington Wizards in the first round, beginning Sunday afternoon. The Cavs beat Milwaukee on the final night of the regular season to edge Chicago by a game for the second seed. This marks the second straight year the Cavs and Wizards will meet in the opening round. Last year, James led his team to a victory in six games, with the Cavaliers winning three times by a point, including in the final two games. Cleveland then lost to Detroit in the East semifinals.
The Wizards, who secured the seventh seed by beating Indiana on Wednesday, enter the playoffs shorthanded due to injuries to Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Butler broke his right hand, but hopes to be ready possibly for the second round, if Washington gets that far. Arenas tore his left knee and needed surgery, and likely will be out for the entire postseason.
Toronto, the Atlantic Division champs, takes on New Jersey in the first round, starting Saturday afternoon. The Raptors are back in the postseason for the first time since the 2001-02 season when they were beaten by the Pistons in the first round. The Nets are making their sixth consecutive trip to the postseason and it will give Vince Carter a chance to play in the playoffs against his former team.
Even though the Heat are seeded fourth and won the Southeast Division, they will not have home-court advantage in the first round against the Bulls because Chicago finished with a better record. It's been a long and winding road to the regular season finish for the Heat, who had to endure injuries to Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade, but their two superstars are geared up for the postseason.
"It is great to wear the crown all year and to be rewarded at different places we go," Wade said. "It is great to be recognized as the champions wherever we went. It was also tough being the ones who are hunted for night in and night out. It was also tough not having Shaq for 40 games this year and not having me for 30. It was a tough year. But it is a different season now and we are looking forward to defending our crown."
The Bulls are trying to avoid being bounced in the first round for a third straight year. Their last playoff series win was over Utah in 1998 in the NBA Finals. One advantage, the Bulls won three of the four meetings this year against the Heat.
The Heat-Bulls series starts Saturday afternoon.
The Pacific Divison-champion Phoenix Suns, who attained a 61-21 record, are seeded second in the West and will play Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs for a second straight year. The series begins Sunday afternoon. The Suns rallied from a 3-1 series deficit last year to win in seven games, the season in which Steve Nash won his second straight MVP. The Suns are trying to overcome losing in the conference finals the last two years.
Allen Iverson gets his first taste of the playoffs as a Nugget, as Denver and Carmelo Anthony take on third-seeded San Antonio, starting Sunday evening. The Spurs posted 58 wins during the regular season, and with Tim Duncan in the middle and Tony Parker controlling the tempo, provide an interesting matchup with the Nuggets. Denver won 100-77 over the Spurs on the final night of the regular season, but reserves saw action most of the game.
The Nuggets haven't won a playoff series since 1994, while the Spurs are trying to get back to the NBA Finals for a third time in five years.
The 4-5 matchup in the West will be between Utah and Houston. Even though the Jazz won the Northwest Division, they will not have home-court advantage as the Rockets finished with a better record. Utah beat Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady's Rockets in three of the four meetings this season.
The Jazz-Rockets series starts Saturday night.

QB Mustain Will Transfer to USC

Quarterback Mitch Mustain is set to transfer to USC.
According to a report in the Los Angeles Times, the quarterback had been contemplating transferring to either USC or Tulsa.
On Wednesday Mustain made his decision and picked the Trojans. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound quarterback was one of the top recruits in the country before committing to the Razorbacks.
Mustain started eight games for Arkansas as a Freshman last season and passed for almost 900 yards and 10 touchdowns.
He will not be eligible to play for USC until the 2008 season.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

White Sox Place Podsednik on 15-Day DL

The Chicago White Sox placed outfielder Scott Podsednik on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday, retroactive to April 16, with a right abductor pull.
The 31-year-old Podsednik is hitting .303 with one home run, two RBI, and six runs scored in 10 games this season.
The White Sox called up 22-year-old Boone Logan from Triple-A Charlotte. Logan is 0-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 11 strikeouts in four relief appearances with Charlotte this season. Logan pitched in 21 games with the White Sox in 2006, allowing 16 earned runs in 17 1/13 innings.

Astros Place Jennings on DL

The Houston Astros placed right-hander Jason Jennings on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 9, on Tuesday due to elbow flexor tendinitis in his pitching elbow.
An MRI performed showed no structural damage.
The 28-year-old Jennings, acquired from the Colorado Rockies in the offseason, is scheduled to undergo rehabilitation of rest, medication and treatment, according to the Astros.
He has a career record of 58-57 with a 4.72 ERA with Colorado and Houston.
The Astros recalled pitcher Matt Albers from Triple-A. Albers will pitch on Friday against Milwaukee.

West Stepping Down With Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies director of basketball operations Jerry West announced on Tuesday that he is stepping down from his post after this season.
West, whose move will be official on July 1, has been with the team since 2002. He has one year left on his current contract, a deal he signed prior to the 2005-06 season.
West, the NBA's 2004 Executive of the Year with Memphis, cited turmoil within the organization for his reason to depart. The Grizzlies reportedly have lost $40 million.
The Grizzlies are an NBA-worst 21-60 this season with one game remaining. Memphis fired Mike Fratello as head coach this past season after the club got off to a 6-24 start. The team made the post-season the last three years, but was swept in the first round each time.
West, 68, was also the Executive of the Year in 1995 with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Sonics Likely Done in Seattle

Key legislators announced on Monday that the Washington State Legislature will not vote on a plan for a new arena for the SuperSonics. On Tuesday, Seattle majority owner Clay Bennett announced that the team will pursue other ideas for a new arena, including relocation.
"We have committed to provide our good-faith best efforts to find a way to build a successor venue," said Bennett. "If that can't be accomplished, then we have the right to relocate."
Professional Basketball Club (PBC) LLC, an Oklahoma City investment group, purchased the team last year and left fans thinking the team was bound for relocation. Bennett, to his credit, guaranteed to keep the team in Seattle if a deal could be worked out for a new arena.

Devils Try to Even Series in Tampa

The second-seeded New Jersey Devils will try to square things against the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight, when the teams meet at St. Pete Times Forum for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.
The Lightning grabbed a 2-1 edge in this best-of-seven series by winning their second straight game Monday evening in Tampa. Vinny Prospal scored the game- winning goal in Game 3 and Johan Holmqvist made 30 saves as the Bolts downed the Devils, 3-2, at St. Pete Times Forum.
Vincent Lecavalier continued his hot play in the postseason with a goal and an assist and Martin St. Louis added three helpers for the seventh-seeded Lightning.
Brad Richards also added a goal and an assist for Tampa Bay.
Lecavalier, who led the NHL with 52 goals and his team with 108 points this season, has tallied four goals and an assist in the first two games of this series.
St. Louis is leading the Bolts in this series with six points (2 goals, 4 assists) and Richards has one goal and four helpers.
The Lightning are 2-0 all-time when leading a series two games to one.
John Madden and Zach Parise each lit the lamp Monday for the Devils, who have been unable to get a win since their 5-3 victory in Game 1.
Even future Hall-of-Famer Martin Brodeur has looked sub-par in the playoffs thus far, as he has given up nine goals on 70 shots. This is after Brodeur had another Vezina-caliber regular season in which he posted an NHL-record 48 wins to go with a .922 save percentage and 2.18 goals against average.
The Devils have dropped 10 of their last 12 road playoff games with the only two victories in that stretch coming in last year's opening-round sweep of the New York Rangers.
After tonight's test, the series will head back to New Jersey for Game 5 on Friday evening.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

NHL Playoff Game Capsules

Vinny Prospal scored the game-winning goal and Johan Holmqvist made 30 saves as the Tampa Lightning downed the New Jersey Devils, 3-2, and grabbed the series lead in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals at St. Pete Times Forum. Vincent Lecavalier continued his hot play in the postseason with a goal and an assist and Martin St. Louis added three helpers for the Lightning, who now hold a two-games-to-one lead in the best-of-seven series. Brad Richards also added a goal and an assist for Tampa Bay. John Madden and Zach Parise each lit the lamp for the Devils, who have dropped the past two games after a 5-3 victory in Game 1.
Final Score: Buffalo 3, NY Islanders 2
Uniondale, NY - Daniel Briere scored the eventual game- winner in the second period, and the Buffalo Sabres held on for a 3-2 win over the New York Islanders in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals at Nassau Coliseum. Adam Mair and Thomas Vanek also scored for the Sabres, who now have a two games to one lead in the best-of-seven series. Ryan Miller stopped 20 of 22 shots in the victory. Ryan Smythe had a goal and one assist, and Trent Hunter also lit the lamp for the Islanders. Rick DiPietro finished the game with 32 saves.
Final Score: San Jose 3, Nashville 1
San Jose, CA - Ryane Clowe scored the eventual game-winning goal in the second period as the San Jose Sharks defeated the Nashville Predators, 3-1, in Game 3 of the Western Conference quarterfinals at HP Pavilion. Milan Michalek and Patrick Marleau also scored for the Sharks, who hold a two games to one lead in the best of seven series. Evgeni Nabokov finished with 19 saves in the victory. Ryan Suter had the lone tally for the Predators. Nashville played without right wing Alexander Radulov, who was serving a one-game suspension handed down by the NHL on Saturday for checking San Jose forward Steve Bernier from behind 4:44 into the second period of Game 2 on Friday night. Radulov has four points in the series and was tied with J.P. Dumont for the team lead in the playoffs coming into the game.Tomas Vokoun made 38 saves for the Predators. Game 4 of this set is scheduled for Wednesday evening in San Jose.

Vikings Sign WR Hankton

The Minnesota Vikings signed free agent wide receiver Cortez Hankton on Monday.
Hankton signed with Jacksonville as a rookie free agent prior to the 2003 season and compiled 34 receptions for 310 yards and two touchdowns in 46 career games for the Jaguars.

White to Return to Indiana for Senior Season

Indiana forward D.J. White announced Tuesday that he will return for his senior season and will not enter the NBA Draft.
White averaged 13.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while shooting 51.2 percent last season for the Hoosiers. His strong campaign earned him a second team All-Big Ten selection as well as consideration for the Naismith Award.
"I believe it is in my best interest to return for my senior season," White said. "I learned a lot from coach (Kelvin) Sampson and the rest of the coaching staff and really improved my game last year. I'm excited to take my game to another level and I look forward to a very successful season with my team."
Led by White, Indiana advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament and finished the season with a record of 21-11.
"Another factor in my decision is I want to graduate," added White. "Getting my degree from Indiana University is very important to me and my family."
White is on track to graduate next year.

Glaus Latest Blue Jay Place on DL

The Toronto Blue Jays placed third baseman Troy Glaus on the 15-day disabled list Monday with a hamstring injury.
Glaus last appeared for the Blue Jays on Thursday. He is hitting .333 with two homers and five RBI in eight games. The slugger has also been bothered by bone spurs in his left ankle this season.
Glaus joins closer B.J. Ryan and outfielder Reed Johnson on the DL. Ryan was placed on the DL Sunday with left elbow pain. Johnson had surgery on Monday to repair a herniated disc in his back. Ryan is expected to miss the next 6-to-8 weeks, while Johnson will be out until at least July.

Monday, April 16, 2007

Money on the Diamond

Wagering on baseball is a game of percentages which is why so many handicappers don't pay attention to trivial stats, trends, weather, injuries, as much as they focus on the matchup on the diamond that day. For instance all teams carry a few left specialist to counter the opposing teams left handed batters. Some left-handed relieving specialists can have a job late in their careers as long as they can get lefty hitters out. Check out any baseball pitching roster and youll notice one or two lefty specialists some guys who you long thought were retired or over the hill. But if they can still get lefties out they are a valuable commodity in the major leagues.
Its also important to examine lefty/righty lineups because some ball parks favor certain hitters. Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium for example are great for lefty batters. Yankee Stadium has a short porch in right field making it an easy home park for lefty sluggers. Fenway has the wall in left field and for decades lefty hitters have learned to go to the opposite field and kiss baseballs off the wall for an easy double what would have been an easy out in every other park. Lets take a peak at some early season teams and how theyve fared against lefty starting pitchers.
Astros: 3-10 against lefty starters including 0-8 on the road. Its easy to see why the Astros struggle on the road as they havent beaten lefties or righties on the road. Houston actually has mostly right-handed hitters too so its not something where they have to sit down certain strong hitters against southpaws. The bottom line: This is simply a bad offensive team that should continue to struggle against righties and lefties.
Yankees: 6-6 versus lefties. This is surprising as this is a deep right-handed hitting lineup. Last year New York was 36-12 against lefties! That 6-6 start may change so keep a close tab on the Yankees against lefties.
Indians: Cleveland was lousy against lefties in 2004 24-34 and theyre struggling again at 3-8 1-5 on the road. With the whole team struggling to hit it doesnt help that two of their best hitters Travis Hafner lefty and Coco Crisp switchhitter are both significantly worse against lefty pitchers. The Indians likely will continue to struggle against southpaws.
Royals: 5-10 against lefties. Same as the Astros: This is simply a bad team.
Padres: 6-1 at home against lefties 1-5 on the road! San Diego is a team a manager would want to throw a lefty against with lefty sluggers Sean Burroughs Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko. Note that the young Burroughs is hitting .283 with 10 walks against righties but .259 with one walk against lefties. It is a bit difficult to explain at this point why they are so good at home against lefties but as the season goes along the Padres are a team that should excel against righties and may struggle against southpaws especially on the road.
These type of scenarios can be found and analyzed in almost all MLB matchups and is the primary focus of my handicapping efforts. Remember to focus on the mound the diamond this year and leave most of the trivial stats out of your equation and you will hopefully have a successful season.

The Value of Multiple Sportsbooks

YOU NEED MORE THAN ONE SPORTSBOOK!
To make money betting on sports, you must do three things: first, find your game; two, look around and get the best value for that game; three, make sure you follow a solid money management system. Most people think of the first and the third. But not enough people “shop” for the best value for their money.
Here are six reasons why you MUST have more than one sportsbook account:
Value – You need to shop multiple books to find the line you need, and the only way you can do that is to have accounts open with various sportsbooks. Having more than one 'out' helps to improve the chances of finding variances in a particular line.
For example if you know that you are looking to bet on the Red Sox and you can get them 5 or 10 cents cheaper with one book over the other, then you take the line that provides you with greater value. It might just be half a point on a game, but getting the line you want in terms of both the spread and the odds will make you more money over time. No question.
Also, any sportsbooks that allow the buying or even selling of points, or give you better odds on parlays and teasers also should be considered in the sports bettor's stable.
Diversification – Just as in the investment world, you need to diversify and not put all your eggs in one basket. In the past few years, various sportsbooks have gone under, and taken many a gamblers’ money with them. Some of these ‘books you could have predicted, but other such as Aces Gold caught most off guard. Always choose your sportsbooks wisely. But if you have $10,000 in play, it’s better to have $2,000 with five books than all your money with one, just in case that one goes under. It’s better to lose just $2k than $10k.
Bonuses – Every sportsbook offers various types of bonuses, depending on the type of gambler they are looking to attract. All sportsbooks offer the same signup bonuses, with the focus on the initial deposit varying from 10% - 20%. But it’s the ongoing “retention” bonuses that differentiate one sportsbook from another. Some offer little or no “re-up” deposit bonuses, but offer a Cash Back from losses bonus. Others have great deposit bonuses during key times throughout the year. You need to find out what is important to you, and then match that need with the sportsbook that will fulfill it.
Product Variety - Some books specialize in providing a type of bet on various sports or sporting events, depending on the strength of the software and the expertise of that sportsbook’s bookmaker. Again, you need to shop around and find out what sportsbooks offer what type of bets on what sports, and the type of lines they run (especially for hockey and baseball).
Phone vs Internet - Some sportsbooks are better at running its business over the phone, while others that have very good software, and loads of servers do a better job taking bets via the Internet. However, the Internet focused books usually have lower limits in place than those taking bets by phone. Again, you need to find out whether or not the limits in place by a specific sportsbook fits your money management system.
Cut Down on Account Limits or Closures – You can do this by setting up accounts with multiple sportsbooks. When you want to play a bet of $5,000 for example, you might want to play $1,000 at five different books. This helps to keep a low profile for yourself, as all sportsbooks have key indicators that throw up red flags for weeding out “wise guys” or “sharpies.” When that happens, you get the “VIP” treatment by having your limits reduced, access to certain sports limited, or simply having your account closed. But by winning at multiple books, you can more easily stay under the radar.
So the message is clear: you must have at least three to four sportsbook accounts to help ensure making money over the long haul, and lessening your risk overall.

To Tease or Not to Tease?

Ok, we all know that one guy that loves to play the teasers and for some reason we feel a little left out. We grew up in this business learning not to touch parlays or teasers and that anybody doing so was the tell tell sign of being a novice gambler. One of the generally held misconceptions is that they are sucker bets to be avoided at all costs. I've been actively involved in sports gambling for over a decade and it’s true that I've seen players make hundreds of thousands of dollars in teaser plays when they don't know what they’re buying. Part of the problem is the gaming industry's fault - there is no good reporting on the "do's and don'ts" for teasers – so with that in mind, I thought I'd share my experience of teasers.
An NFL teaser is commonly a two team parlay where your chosen team gets six extra points added in your favor to its spread. So if Dallas was +2 and Pittsburgh was -7.5, your teaser wager would be a parlay on Dallas +8 and Pittsburgh -1.5. If you are betting at -110 (betting $110 to win $100), you need to win at least 52.4% of your teasers to break even. This is the same win percentage needed for to break even on normal sides bets when you lay -110 at a traditional sports book.
Since both of your selections need to win so that you can cash your ticket, each individual teaser team needs to cover 72.5% for you to break even (72.5% X 72.5% = 52.6%). So in exchange for those six extra points in your favor, when you buy a teaser you are raising your breakeven point from 52.4% to 72.5% on that one team. If you don't win that individual leg at least 20% more with those six points, don't bother teasing - you are buying something you don't need.
A common mistake I see with teasers is teasing a total. There is no total in the NFL or College that when teased six points, raises your win rate 20%. In general, teasing any total is a bad play. Fortunately one of the best ways to play a teaser is to play a spread that when teased, moves through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Teasing Dallas from +2 to +8 or Pittsburgh from -7.5 to -1.5 are two examples.
Another tool you can use in conjunction with teasers is Pinnacle Sports’ "NFL Alternate High" and "NFL Alternate Low" lines. Due to our reduced juice pricing, these potentially allow you to guarantee a profit and hedge out of your position if you win the first leg of your teaser but have perhaps had a change of heart.
For instance, if you bet $100 on Dallas +8/Pittsburgh -1.5 and Dallas had already won, you could possibly bet $50 on Pittsburgh's opponent at +1.5+250. With these lines unique to Pinnacle Sports, you can lock in a +profitafter the first leg of a teaser is played. You might even find situations where you can guarantee a profit no matter what the result - even before the first game kicks off - with a little line shopping.
Although there is a lot more to study when it comes to teasers, I hope that armed with these basics you can find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports on all of this week’s action including the games below where we have seen some interesting early line movement.
USC (-11.5) at Notre Dame
This game looks to be an offensive shootout with a total of 69.5, the highest on the board. USC goes into this game averaging 51.6 points per game while Notre Dame has averaged 37 points per game. Despite the Trojans prolific offense, it has had difficulties the last three weeks being down in the second half against Oregon and Arizona St. and had only a 7-pt lead over Arizona at one point in the 4th quarter last week. The Fighting Irish are coming off a bye-week following routs of Purdue (49-28) and Washington (36-17).
We opened the game at -11 and saw early favorite money that pushed the line out to -13.5. A day later, we started getting sharp money on Notre Dame as the line dropped back to -12. There is opposition at ND +12 +101 / USC -11.5 -105, which is something we love to see on what will be our largest grossing college game of the week.
Florida (+6) at LSU
While Florida and LSU have a combined record of 8-2, each team has faced extraordinary challenges this season. Gators’ QB Chris Leak injured his shoulder several weeks ago en route to a 31-3 loss and has continued to struggle ever since. Four Florida receivers are also suffering from injuries –Caldwell and Cornelius didn't play last week and Jackson and Baker missed game time. Meanwhile, LSU has had its own problems. In four games, it has turned the ball over 11 times and been penalized 88.5 yards per game (versus opponents' 53.5 yards per game). Like Florida, its offense has been repeatedly bailed out by its defense.
We opened the game at +6.5 and immediately took limit bets on LSU from sharp money. We later received more action the other way as the number stabilized at +6. Despite writing an above average volume on this game, we had written four times as much on the USC-ND game at the time of writing.
Minnesota (+3) at Chicago
The Vikings have averaged over 50 yards of offense per game more than Chicago but have had a problem with self-destructing. In four games, they've thrown ten interceptions, lost five fumbles and managed a -8 turnover differential. The team that wins a turnover battle in a game wins outright 77% of the time, so it should come as no surprise that Minnesota is 1-3.
We initially opened this at +1.5. The early money was on the Bears, driving the price to +3 -111. At this point, there was opposition between two syndicates with orders going out on the Vikings +3 and an unnamed group that's already beaten us out of $1.5m this year taking Chicago. This will probably be our highest volume NFL game thanks to this dueling syndicate action.
St. Louis (+13.5) at Indianapolis
Some players handicap using trend analysis. A big favorite before 2003 was "Home dogs receiving more than seven points". This group was systematically overpriced and playing the dog covered at roughly a 60% clip. However, with the advent of the Internet and increasingly sophisticated players, the offshore books have tightened the lines.
For "big dog" system followers, Indianapolis has been a player's worst nightmare. During the past year and through the first five weeks of 2005, Indianapolis is 7-4 against the spread if favored by more than seven points. If you find a trend you like, be careful about betting it blindly.
We opened the game at -13 and were quickly driven to -13.5 by syndicate play. This is our highest grossing game in the first 48 hours since posting lines; mostly on Indianapolis. This is still early though and syndicates sometimes bet the wrong side early in the week - especially near key numbers. They do this as the market size is smaller earlier in the week and if they can drive the price to +14 or thereabouts for a minimal investment. They can then take back St. Louis later when the market can absorb $1m at a number. In such situations, syndicates would consider the initial outlay a "free play" due to the equity in the middle.

Betting on Weather

Large amounts of money are lost each season by sports bettors who do not fully understand how to account for weather in their sports handicapping. Extreme weather presents the player with two types of profitable opportunities:
1) To play ON a condition that will have MORE effect than the public realizes;
2) To play OPPOSITE a condition that will have LESS effect than the public realizes.
Whenever we judge any effect on a game we must determine to what degree the effect has already been accounted for in the point spread. An obvious example would be if a team’s starting quarterback is out due to injury. Such a fact would most certainly be built into the point spread, so blindly betting against a team playing a backup QB offers no edge. This same obviousness would apply to playing the under on a football game when a bad weather is expected. In these cases, as always, a sports handicapper must compare his assessment of the effect with the way it is accounted for in the point spread. Only when there is a discrepancy in assessment can there be a true edge.
The most over-considered weather condition is snow. Being easy to see on TV and easy to understand (we’ve all walked on slippery sidewalks) makes snow hard to ignore. Such conditions are typically associated with lower scoring. But in reality snow has little effect on game-play a vast majority of the time. Constantly improving grass/turf fields, footballs made of advanced synthetics, and the perpetual rotation & sideline maintenance (keeping them dry and warm) of those same balls has significantly diminished in recent years the effect of snow on game-play.
In fact, often the effect that does exist is to the advantage of the offense! Why? Because on a slightly slick field the offense knows where it is running to while the defense is force to react abruptly. If a receiver slips the offense may lose one play; if a defender slips the offense can easily score a touchdown. Since defenses want to attack rather than react on a slick field they become more aggressive, causing (and, in turn, giving up) more big plays. Snow presents the sports handicapper with game conditions the public believes will lead to low scoring when in reality the opposite is true.
Extreme snow, though, is another matter to consider. A few games per year are affected by snow to such an extent that normal game-play is impossible. The simple act of dropping back to pass is too dangerous to attempt. Kicking a 30 yard field goal is an iffy proposition. In these rare cases the under is often the play simply because the point spread cannot be adjusted downward enough (Imagine a total of 17.5 on a NFL game). Also keep in mind in any low scoring game a big underdog gains value.
The most under-considered weather condition is wind. You can’t see it on TV, but it can affect game-play in extreme ways. Today’s 21st century passing games are based upon timing, and when the wind is blowing hard timing can’t help but be thrown off. The following is a little known fact: wind that blows ACROSS THE FIELD affects play much more than wind that blows from end zone to end zone. This is because on passes and especially field goals wind is harder to compensate for when blowing side-to-side. (And even lesser known fact is that over 90% of football fields are set up with the end zones directed north to south; so, though it would be best to learn about each field individually, you will be correct most the time if you assume north/south wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone while east/west will be cross-field). Note that windy conditions affect all teams, but even more so teams that rely on the passing game. Wind, then, presents the sports handicapper with conditions that will tend toward low scoring, tend toward the underdog, and tend against passing teams while most likely not being properly accounted for in the point spread.
Extreme temperatures must also be considered. Cold weather football teams playing in high heat occurs most often early in the season; the effect is typically one of fatigue. A wise (and creative) play for the sports handicapper would be to consider playing against the cold weather football team in the second half.
Warm weather football teams playing in the cold seem to have even more trouble. Ultimately it comes down to what a football team’s players are used to. The effect of cold weather on warm weather football teams is well documented; one only needs consider the stats on the Packers at home or Tampa Bay in the cold. These well-known situations rarely offer value. The sports handicapper MUST ALWAYS assess the effect while considering how the line is accounting for it.
The most valuable information (and the type many players dream about) is knowing something most people don’t. Finding out before the lines maker that there will be 3 feet of snow in Buffalo next Sunday would make winning easy. Realistically, though, in today’s Internet age such a scoop in nearly impossible to come by. What is not impossible, and what can be equally as profitable, is the ability to find weather situations the point spread has overcompensated for to play against while finding others the point spread has under compensated for to play on.

Bases Best Bet

To this day it amazes me just how many sports bettors pass on baseball for football and basketball to place their wagering dollars on. I say shame on you for doing so, but I’ll take the money anyway, the rest of you wait till football rolls around again! There is no doubt in my mind that over the years I have made 5 fold the money betting baseball than any other sport, and that is 14 years of experience talking, and from a guy who went a documented 67% in College Football, and 69% in the NFL in 2003. Let’s break this down and see if we can’t get some guys on the bandwagon to make some easy money, because in no uncertain terms, baseball is the easiest sport of all to win money at. Ask any bookmaker in Las Vegas or the guys at Bo Dog Sportsbook or any other offshore operation, they hate baseball! Sharp players beat them up every single year in bases, yet the public continues to shy away from this moneymaking sport with numerous options to enhance a bankroll.
Most novice bettors are totally confused by the money lines, because you are not “laying points”. Folks if a team is laying –140, that means you are wagering $140 to win $100. Money management 101 for those living under a rock. Then comes the dime line or the 20-cent line, what does that mean? Simply put, when you lay $110 to win $100 in football or basketball, a dime line is the same 11 to 10 odds, but a 20-cent line is 12 to 10 odds, or you are laying $120 to win a $100. For the most part over and under’s in baseball are the same as 11 to 10 odds as in football or basketball with a book that posts a dime line, otherwise some books even with a 20-cent line may in fact post dime lines on totals plays. It takes one trip to a website that reviews sportsbooks to find out what books offer what lines. If you are serious about winning, it is imperative you research the books and their lines. Some offshore sportsbooks offer 10 cent lines (dime lines) up to a certain number, say –150, then they go to a 15 cent or 20 cent line from there. I have seen the competition heat up in the marketing by offshore books, and some of them now are offering an 8-cent line! A little homework can make you allot of extra cash, instead of leaving it on the table! I laid over -150 seventeen times last year and never once did I lay more than -170. Stretching yourself on "sure bets" of -220 or higher, and then lose that game, cuts into a bankroll big time, so honing in on games of value and knowing how to play the moneyline is absolutley crucial! Remember in baseball and money line bets, less is more at the end of the day.
The reason numerous sportsbooks post a 20-cent line is they KNOW that sharp players will take them for their money in baseball, and it minimizes the profits of those players, and maximizes the losses for the books when they come in. Usually you will find almost all books will make you pay a 20-cent line on a play of over –200, since there is a high chance that team can win, but that’s why it is called gambling. Once again proving that baseball is easy to win at if you know what to look for. In baseball, the team ONLY has to win to cash tickets. It comes down to some real simple items to look at to get started, mainly pitching and hitting, that is the bottom line in the simplest of terms. I also look at slugging percentage and on base percentage and then a few intangibles. But wait a minute the novice says, I will not lay –320 with Randy Johnson, and –280 with Pedro Martinez, what if they lose? Granted it is possible, even playing a weak sister, that one of these studs may have an off day, but the beauty is you can lower the odds in baseball. Let’s say you have 2 teams, with 2 strong pitchers both laying –200 or more against a team they should clearly mop the floor with, but you don’t want to expose yourself to a heavy chalk line. I suggest a 2-team parley, for half of your normal wager. The payout with those odds is bet $100 to win $125 for a two teamer. Worth a shot isn’t it? Remember also you can lay it on a run line too, it lowers the odds, but Team A has to beat Team B by 1.5 runs, or basically win by 2 runs in order to cash a ticket at much lower odds, once again providing you an option to make money in baseball on a side play.
It is not so much wins and losses in baseball from a win percentage that counts, but it is units won based on a money line. There is money to be made baseball without question, and if you manage your money and use discipline and have a good sports service, you can build quite a bankroll over the summer and then have plenty of cash to get ready for football in the fall. Pick the best bet on the board everyday, and bet it. Less is more, and in baseball it can be much more.

Rockies Place Matsui on DL

Colorado infielder Kaz Matsui was placed on the 15-day disabled list Sunday due to back spasms. Matsui started at second base Saturday night and went 2-for-3 before leaving the contest in the fifth inning due to the back problem. Acquired in a trade from the Mets last June, Matsui was off to a big start offensively with a .361 average in nine games this year. The Rockies replaced Matsui's roster spot by calling up infielder Clint Barmes from Triple-A Colorado Springs.

Clint Barmes batted .220 last year with 56 RBI's and 7 HR. Barmes is not known to swing a heavy stick but is merely relied on for his speed on the base paths and solid fielding.