Thursday, June 28, 2007

Behind the Plate Numbers

There are several factors that go into handicapping MLB matchups. Some obvious things that Sharps look at are pitching matchups (how teams perform against lefties), bullpen efficiency, runner's left on base, winning and losing streaks, home and road dichotomies. But some of my most critical information all depends on who is working the game that night. What study the umpires? You bet. Umpire tendencies and tight or large strike zones is one of the best kept secrets handicapping.
Taking a closer look at the numbers of the men that officiate pro baseball is definitely worth your time and effort and can have a positive influence on the overall health of your summertime bankroll. Take the time to study your umps this year and track their trends of scoring and balls and strikes ratio's to determine which guy's in blue are "overs" friendly and who is "unders" friendly. You will also find this information key to hitter information as well.
Below are some umpires that show home and road dichotomy's and an influence on Totals propositions.
Keep in mind that MLB crews are not known until about one hour before the first game of a series. But you will know in advance who will be behind the plate from game two forward as that will be the first base umpire from the game before.
If you like a home team to win, what better umpires to have this season than Dan Iassogna (6-0), Tim Timmons (5-0), CB Bucknor (5-0), Randy Marsh (7-1) and Sam Holbrook (7-1)? Look out for these and other umpires that have had home cookin’ tendencies over the past few seasons. You will be surprised at how many units these guys can add to your bankroll, under the right circumstances.
If your backing the road team, then you want Marvin Hudson (6-0), Brian Gorman (5-1), Bruce Dreckman (5-1), Martin Foster (5-1) and Jeff Nelson (5-1) with the brush in his hand. These guys are a combined 1-16 with the home team lined as chalk. Coincidence? Not at 1-16 it's not.
The one area that the umpire has the greatest control over is the strike zone. If the home plate umpire has a small strike zone this forces pitchers to be more precise and places more pitches over the heart of the plate. This style of umpiring can lead to more high scoring games and Overs. Conversely, umpires that call a high number of strikes means more low scoring affairs, favoring the under.
In short a good 'Under' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 3:1 or higher. A good 'OVER' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 2:1 or less.
Look out for Joe West (5-0), Jim Reynolds (5-1), James Hoye (5-1) and Bruce Dreckman (5-1). These guys have real small strike zones and hand out free passes to first base as though they were handing out free hot drinks from the soup wagon to the homeless. The first three umpires named have less than a 1.9:1 K/BB ratio. So are you taking the unders or overs with Joe West behind the plate?
Umpires with big strike zones who contribute to lower scoring games are Doug Eddings (5-2), Jeff Nelson (4-1) and John Hirschbeck (3-1). Clearly, these member's of the blue brigade must have early restaurant reservations to keep. Keep a real close eye on these three guys, as last season Eddings was 20-14, Nelson was 20-12, and Hirschbeck was 17-7 all to the 'Under'.
The undoubted ‘Under’ king of this trio is Doug Eddings as he has a tendency to call a very high percentage of "strikes". Eddings doesn't call a lot of balls and an average game features 18 strikeouts for every 6 walks (67%). With Doug's numbers he is undoubtedly the best "Under" Umpire over the last five years in MLB Handicapping.
There is a ton of stats information to sort thru when handicapping baseball, but you have got to start looking closer behind the plate this season if you are going to up your batting average this season.

Jimmy Toliver
ATSExperts.com

Monday, June 25, 2007

2007 NBA Draft Preview

The 2007 draft may be the start of a wild and crazy offseason in the NBA. The top two picks are expected to be franchise players who have the ability to turn a pair of clubs into instant playoff contenders.
The 2007 NBA Draft is scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 28th at The WaMu Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York. There are two rounds and a total of 60 picks will be made.
When this year's version of the NBA Draft becomes a part of history, Portland will be the big winner. While many believe the Trail Blazers are going to make Ohio State's Greg Oden the No. 1 overall selection in the draft, specualtion has arisen that Texas' Kevin Durant may have entered the picture. Both Durant and Oden are expected to be a franchise players that could make an immediate impact during their rookie seasons..
Seattle, which is expected to lose forward Rashard Lewis in free agency during the offseason, will then have the opportunity to add Oden or the multi- talented Durant with the second pick.
After Oden and Durant, nothing is guaranteed. Atlanta, Memphis and Boston round out the top-five selections. The Hawks and Grizzlies will both be happy with either Al Horford of Florida or North Carolina's Brandan Wright. If Horford and Wright go at No. 3 and No. 4, the Celtics are in a tough spot and that's where the fun may begin.
All-Stars Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion and Jermaine O'Neal will all be mentioned throughout draft night and into the summer as parts of major trades. The Lakers-Bryant soap opera is still in its infant stages, while Minnesota's Garnett, Marion of Phoenix and Indiana's O'Neal have heard their names come up before in trade talk.
The Celtics still want to win with Paul Pierce as one of the stars of the show. Trying to acquire Garnett, Marion or O'Neal would be a major step in that direction. If Oden, Durant, Horford and Wright are gone with the first four picks, Boston may try and use the fifth selection as a chip in a blockbuster deal to acquire an All-Star player.
Forwards Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah of Florida, Florida State's Al Thornton, Georgetown's Jeff Green, Julian Wright of Kansas, Yi Jianlian of China, and center Spencer Hawes of Washington and point guards Mike Conley of Ohio State, Texas A&M's Acie Law and Javaris Crittenton of Georgia Tech are some of the names that are expected to go in the opening round of the draft. Like drafts of year's past, there is a lot of potential, which may be the most dangerous word in sports.
Milwaukee, Minnesota, Charlotte, Chicago, Sacramento, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New Orleans and the Clippers represent the remainder of the lottery picks (1-14). The Hawks, who also own Indiana's pick from a past trade, have a chance to make a big splash with two high selections (3,11). They have needs and will be able to address them on June 28th.
Brewer and Green are ready to contribute in their rookie campaigns, while Thornton and Hawes' stock are on the rise and Conley is considered the best point guard in the draft. There are questions about Noah's ability to succeed at the next level, and Yi has impressed at his workouts but is still considered a gamble.
After careful thought, Green and Hawes decided to stay in the draft and are expected to be rewarded by being selected in the top 10. Atlanta needs a point guard and would love to get Conley with one of their picks. If the Hawks go big at No. 3, Conley will most likely be gone by the time they pick again. Crittenton or Law would be next on the board at the point.
If the Lakers, who have the 19th overall selection, decide to seriously pursue trading Bryant, Chicago is a possible fit. The Bulls have young, talented players in Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. The ninth overall pick would almost certainly be part of any kind of package.
The Bucks are trying to find a player at No. 6 who will fit in with a nucleus of center Andrew Bogut and sharp-shooting Michael Redd, while the Timberwolves are a team in need of direction and have to decide if Garnett is still the cornerstone of the franchise. The Bobcats are trying to become a playoff contender, the Kings, who missed the playoffs for the first time in nine years, hope the 10th overall pick will help get them back to the postseason and Philadelphia is rebuilding. The Clippers and Hornets are playoff contenders who would like to add someone who can contribute right away.
Atlanta (3, 11) Charlotte (8, 22), Detroit (15, 27) and Phoenix (24, 29) all own a pair of first-round picks, while Philadelphia has three (12, 21, 30). Cleveland, Denver, Indiana and Toronto are all shut out with no picks heading into the draft. Dallas and Orlando don't have a first-round selection this year.
Oden and Durant make this a solid draft. Trade talk could steal the spotlight after the first two picks, as teams like Boston, Minnesota and the Lakers may be looking to make a big splash with a mind-boggling deal.
It should be an entertaining night for NBA fans.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

ATSH2H - Head to Head Sports Stats

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Tuesday, June 5, 2007

2007 NBA Finals Breakdown

I am very excited about the upcoming 2007 NBA Finals between San Antonio and Cleveland. LeBron James has clearly played himself into the upper echelon of NBA players. Here is a position - by - position breakdown of the Finals.

Center: Fabrcio Oberto vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
The difference between these two center's impacts is that the Cavs will look for Ilgauskas early and throughout the game to establish the inside game where the Spurs rarely run plays for Oberto. Oberto is a high energy player and will always log quality minutes. Ilgauskas is an All-Star and Oberto fills space.
Advantage: Cavaliers

Power Forward: Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden
Is there really a need to break down these two? A three-time NBA Finals MVP, Duncan has been nothing short of extraordinary in the postseason. Drew Gooden has really not made a name for himself in the NBA, but fits in nicely with the Cavaliers offense. "Fitting in" will not cut it against the Spurs.
Advantage: Spurs

Small Forward: Bruce Bowen vs. LeBron James
Bowen is one of the NBA's top perimeter defenders and has agitated stars this postseason and will be sure to pester James. James is one of the best at attacking the hoop and when he is on his game no one can stop him. James has worked well by incorporating every teammate on the floor and will be sure to do so in the Finals.
Advantage: Cavaliers

Shooting Guard: Michael Finley vs. Sasha Pavlovic
The veteran Finley is starting to find his shot and is a threat from the perimeter. Pavlovic has had a couple double digit scoring games in the East semifinals.
Advantage: Spurs

Point Guard: Tony Parker vs. Larry Hughes
Tony Parker has developed into one of the games best point guards and his ability to attack the basket and dish out will give the Cavs problems. Larry Hughes is still battling an injury and is a very inconsistent player.
Advantage: Spurs

Coaches: Gregg Popovich vs. Mike Brown
Three victorious trips for Pop will be the difference maker in this series. Bluntly put, the Spurs roster is filled with veteran players and the Cavs are making their first trip to the Finals.
Advantage: Spurs