Behind the Plate Numbers

There are several factors that go into handicapping MLB matchups. Some obvious things that Sharps look at are pitching matchups (how teams perform against lefties), bullpen efficiency, runner's left on base, winning and losing streaks, home and road dichotomies. But some of my most critical information all depends on who is working the game that night. What study the umpires? You bet. Umpire tendencies and tight or large strike zones is one of the best kept secrets handicapping.
Taking a closer look at the numbers of the men that officiate pro baseball is definitely worth your time and effort and can have a positive influence on the overall health of your summertime bankroll. Take the time to study your umps this year and track their trends of scoring and balls and strikes ratio's to determine which guy's in blue are "overs" friendly and who is "unders" friendly. You will also find this information key to hitter information as well.
Below are some umpires that show home and road dichotomy's and an influence on Totals propositions.
Keep in mind that MLB crews are not known until about one hour before the first game of a series. But you will know in advance who will be behind the plate from game two forward as that will be the first base umpire from the game before.
If you like a home team to win, what better umpires to have this season than Dan Iassogna (6-0), Tim Timmons (5-0), CB Bucknor (5-0), Randy Marsh (7-1) and Sam Holbrook (7-1)? Look out for these and other umpires that have had home cookin’ tendencies over the past few seasons. You will be surprised at how many units these guys can add to your bankroll, under the right circumstances.
If your backing the road team, then you want Marvin Hudson (6-0), Brian Gorman (5-1), Bruce Dreckman (5-1), Martin Foster (5-1) and Jeff Nelson (5-1) with the brush in his hand. These guys are a combined 1-16 with the home team lined as chalk. Coincidence? Not at 1-16 it's not.
The one area that the umpire has the greatest control over is the strike zone. If the home plate umpire has a small strike zone this forces pitchers to be more precise and places more pitches over the heart of the plate. This style of umpiring can lead to more high scoring games and Overs. Conversely, umpires that call a high number of strikes means more low scoring affairs, favoring the under.
In short a good 'Under' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 3:1 or higher. A good 'OVER' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 2:1 or less.
Look out for Joe West (5-0), Jim Reynolds (5-1), James Hoye (5-1) and Bruce Dreckman (5-1). These guys have real small strike zones and hand out free passes to first base as though they were handing out free hot drinks from the soup wagon to the homeless. The first three umpires named have less than a 1.9:1 K/BB ratio. So are you taking the unders or overs with Joe West behind the plate?
Umpires with big strike zones who contribute to lower scoring games are Doug Eddings (5-2), Jeff Nelson (4-1) and John Hirschbeck (3-1). Clearly, these member's of the blue brigade must have early restaurant reservations to keep. Keep a real close eye on these three guys, as last season Eddings was 20-14, Nelson was 20-12, and Hirschbeck was 17-7 all to the 'Under'.
The undoubted ‘Under’ king of this trio is Doug Eddings as he has a tendency to call a very high percentage of "strikes". Eddings doesn't call a lot of balls and an average game features 18 strikeouts for every 6 walks (67%). With Doug's numbers he is undoubtedly the best "Under" Umpire over the last five years in MLB Handicapping.
There is a ton of stats information to sort thru when handicapping baseball, but you have got to start looking closer behind the plate this season if you are going to up your batting average this season.

Jimmy Toliver
ATSExperts.com